Monday, April 11, 2011

Historical Volatility Daily

Historical Volatility Daily
With MetaStock ™ for Windows, you can easily plot the 10 and 100 day historical volatility. The first use of the Indicator Builder to enter the following Custom indicators:
Historical Volatility 10 day
Std (Log (C / Ref (C, -1)), 10) * sqrt (365) * 100
Historical Volatility 100 day
Std (Log (C / Ref (C, -1)), 100) * sqrt (365) * 100
Next conspiracy and indicators in the same inner window. If there Scaling Options dialog, select the Merge with Scale on the right (or left) option.
I find it easier to see the Historical Volatility signals by combining the 10 and 100 day indicators into the following indicator.
Historical Volatility Indicator
Std (Log (C / Ref (C, -1)), 10) / Std (Log (C / Ref (C, -1)), 100)
Plot this indicator in MetaStock for Windows, and then click your mouse button on the indicator. Select Historical Volatility Indicator Properties and then choose the Horizontal Lines page. Add a horizontal line of 0.5 and then choose the button OK. You now know the 10 period volatility is less than half the 100 period volatility anytime this indicator crosses below its horizontal line.
To test trading systems using this indicator that would help to use the alert function together with trends indicators such as the following example:
Enter Long: Cross (close, MOV (C, 20, E)) AND Alert (Fml ("Historical Volatility Indicator") <= 5.10)
Enter Short: Cross (Mov (C, 20 E) in the vicinity) and Alert (Fml ("Historical Volatility Indicator") <= 5.10)
This system will enter a long trade when the close has crossed above its 20 day moving average, and when historical volatility indicator is 0.5 or less in the last 10 days. The system will sell when it passes close below its 20 day moving average, and when historical volatility indicator is 0.5 or less in the last 10 days. Use any indicator you want, this just provides a basic example of how to use this indicator in a system test

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