Thursday, July 07, 2011

EUR corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93

Although the single currency edged higher after the sharp decline of 132.37 (Wednesday's low) against the Japanese yen, trading near future variable in the 132.37 to 135.37 is still probably as 135.70 (previous support, now resistance) has another attempt downside is still likely, however, down from 139.26 as the top is seen as the correction, the price will be held over the 131.47/70 support area and returns.

Therefore, we are going to trade the range and will sell EUR / JPY at 135.30 or 132.50 buy for 150 points with 50 points stop. The head injury indicated earlier support of 135.70 (now resistance) will confirm the corrective decline from 139.26 is over the top and bring the continuation of the wave V 1 for another attempt at resistance later this month.

To re-cap of corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93 (October 18, 2000), and from there the wave is divided into: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (June 1, 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (November 10, 2003) and 5 completed a record high of 169.97 (July 21, 2008). The short but sharp selloff to 112.08 is seen as ABC x ABC type correction in the B wave. following a rally of 112.08 showed impulsive structure, therefore, we labeled wave 1 re. from 139.29 selloff seen as the route of the downswing to increase by 126.99 (May 18) and only a violation of 131.47/70 support area will confirm the wave of 1 V is over and bring a wave 2 correction 129.70 and perhaps to 126.99 (May 18, 2009), however, 124.38 support should remain intact.

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