Thursday, July 07, 2011

To re-cap of corrective fall

Our trading strategy into a long hold 0.7900, Target: 0.8060, Stop-Loss: 0.7900 (0.7850 was the original)

AUD / USD is able to phase returns expected after finding buying interest above yesterday's low at 0.7861 (today's low 0.7875) as expected, maintaining our position that the Aussie is to go nowhere but in a wide range 0.7829 to 0.8265 range for now and head bias consolidation will see another rise to 0.8068, above, can bring more bounce to 0 .. 8153rd

Therefore, we hold our long position into harmony with 0.7900 now increased to break even and to protect profits. On the downside, below 0.7861 may risk another attempt at 0.7829 support, however, only firm break will bring stronger violation of 0.7703/48 support area.

This consolidation in the variable range of 0.7829 to 0.8265 set to continue in June to break the wrong place to be confirmed later wave rally from 0.6248 3 (February 2, 2009) once again continue and extend gain to 0 , 8292 (1.618 times the Fibonacci projection of 0.6007 to 0.7270 measured from 0.6248) and possibly to 0.8383 (50% Fibonacci retracement from 0.9851 to 0.6007 in).

To re-cap of corrective fall from last year's high of 0.9851 (15 July 2008), fast and quick selloff was primarily due to derivative trading and therefore, we are treating as a simple ABC correction type of consolidation with A: 0 , 7800 (September 17, 2008), B: 0,8520 (September 22, 2008) and complete wave C 0.6007 (27 October 2008). The rally from there to 0.7270 (January 7, 2009) is provisionally designated as 1 wave, the withdrawal of 0.6248 (February 2, 2009) are seen as wave 2 and after the event is labeled as wave 3 and formed a temporary top today at 0.8265, above would extend to 0.8292 (1.618 times the Fibonacci projection of 0.6007 to 0.7270 measured from 0.6248) and possibly to 0.8383 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9851 - 0.6007).

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