Tuesday, May 24, 2011

short-term moving averages

Price activity and GMMA relationships are different in the bubble area. Area A shows a steady and consistent level of separation between long-and short-term groups are moving averages. Area B shows a significant widening of this gap. Prices shoot and above what investors are willing to pay.
The trading activity of expansion and compression is not dramatic in A. In area B, extending short-term group was significantly greater than in A. steepness of slope increases and the degree of division within the short term group also increases dramatically. The wider gap in this group is greater degree of competition among traders overexcited. They are aggressively outbidding each other to hold the shares. This simply can not last long, because it requires new money to buy the ever-increasing prices. When traders are trying to lock in profits they do so aggressively. This means that meeting the offer instead of waiting for prices to lift their ask. The result is a sudden drying of short-term averages, leading to a cascade of lower offers. Potential buyers should not bid on high. Prices collapse as the bubble is pricked.

The final identification feature is the change in frequency of sole compression and expansion activity. Area A covers four weeks and shows three peaks in the short term group of averages. Area B covers a similar time period, but includes only one peak. This is a change in the nature of economic activity.
This is a classic bubble and in this case as a classic speculative bubble.

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