Conditions in Europe have not really changed much since yesterday's news of a crisis in Italy's continuing funding, except that Greece - before even receiving all of its most recent bailout money - already has put out its hand for more.
The word for the deepening debt crisis in Europe most-bantered about these days is contagion, the likelihood that issues of underfunding and failing to meet obligations by sovereign governments will spread. Here's a tip: contagion is already in effect. A few years ago Iceland defaulted on debt, refused to take austerity and cash from the IMF and is well on its way to a newfound prosperity without the rigors of international finance and fractional reserve banking.
However, on the continent, Ireland, Greece, and now Italy are suffering strains of the same disease - that of over-promising (mostly on government employee pensions and benefits) and failing to pull in enough revenue in taxes, fees and levies to pay out promptly and graciously. Portugal and Spain are not far behind, and the tiny nation of Belarus has already defaulted and devalued its currency. Belgium is also a basket case.
Contagion is here and its happening now.
What this really means is two things: 1) The European Union is in its death throes after just 11 years of existence, and, 2) Many of the largest banks in Europe are nearing the end of their government-supplied rope and will hang.
And maybe there's a third link to the disaster that is modern Europe: people will cheat, steal, riot, and eventually revolt. Forget collecting taxes. Government officials will be happy if they escape with the clothes on their backs and a few thousand Euros to see them safely out of their respective countries. Whether or not the contagion has enough virulence to travel across the Atlantic Ocean and infect the United States is a matter for politicians and their media lackeys, because the United States is the world's largest debtor with a total debt (on the books, not including the unfunded liabilities of Social Security, Medicade and Medicare) well beyond its annual GDP, making the United States the worst of all nations with a debt-to-GDP ration of over 100%.
Not only is the USA a basket case gone full retard, the debt is growing larger every day, and every day the Obama administration and the congress dithers over raising the debt ceiling (they all agree that the US cannot default), the situation worsens. We are in the midst of the most enthralling and frightening economic condition of all time. Many, many grave errors have occured over the past thirty years, not the least of which was the hollowing out of our industrial base which provided good jobs for millions of Americans. Those jobs went to Mexico and then to Southeast Asia and China. They are gone, many for good, and there is no way to bring them back soon.
It brings up an interesting proposition, supposing that the mindless cretins we call our "leaders" in Washington haggle and argue right up to the August 2nd deadline. Who gets stiffed in the case of a default? Would the US actually stop paying its military? Social Security recipients? Food stamp mouth-breathers? How about China?
There are no good answers, only bad and horrible conclusions. The answer is China. Stiff the Chinese on their $1.8 billion or so in bond holdings and go to war, as war solves all problems in a way. Both countries get decimated in a protracted struggle or blow each other and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere away in a nuclear holocaust. The first way is slow, painful and regrettable. The second is quick and completely devastating, and since neither side would likely opt for MAD (mutually assured destruction), the first choice is rather obvious.
Will it happen? Hopefully not. And there's the very good chance that the politicians, controlled by the banking and industrialist interests, would opt on stiffing seniors. What the heck, they're old and going to die soon anyway, why not just accelerate the process. And wipe out the food stamp class as well. They contribute nothing, so starve them to death. Nice scenarios, no?
Whatever happens over the next few weeks, nothing is really going to be solved. Even if the government officials decide on a compromise of $3 trillion in budget cuts over ten years, the annual deficit will probably be close to a trillion dollars each and every year. They're only cutting $300 billion a year out of the budget. It's kind of like using a sponge to empty a bucket. It works, but not very well. By 2022, the national debt will have grown to over $24 trillion, and that's if they work out a compromise that cuts some of the deficit and tax revenues remain steady for the next ten years, two possibilities that are not very good bets.
In other words, you, me, your kids, their friends, your neighbors and their neighbors are royally screwed unless we begin taking off the rose-colored shades and rid ourselves of the infliction known as normalcy bias pretty soon. Normal is going away. Austerity, poverty and desperation will become rampant, as they're already spreading across the land and are in place in Europe.
Not to sound like the whack-job on the street corner, shouting, "prepare or die," it is time to hunker down and get serious about the issues plaguing the globe, most of which start and end at your local bank branch, which is probably a Chase, Bank of America or Wells Fargo. They're the problem, have been the problem and will continue to be the problem until they are forced to meet their realities and be broken up, though that will not happen. We're beyond that, and, with the politicians thinking more about elections in 2012 rather than whether or not there will be a nation and an engaged electorate at that time, the chances of complete systemic breakdown are greater than they were in 2008, when the unthinkable almost happened. This time, there will be no bailout, because it will be the government going under.
Whether that's a good thing or not will be for historians to judge, but one thing's for certain: we cannot continue along this path much further without some kind of catastrophe. It's coming faster than anyone can imagine.
As for the markets, the major indices bounced along the flat line for most of the session, with the NASDAQ (where the highest risk stocks reside) taking the worst of it. There was a slight bounce after the Fed released the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, in which it was revealed that the Fed governors were torn between more stimulus and raising rates. There cannot be a greater divide of opinion, which, at such a critical time, is a very, very bad omen and portends more mistakes by the Fed straight ahead.
That bounce lasted only a few minutes as stocks fell to their worst levels of the day into the close. It was truly ugly and sets up some very dicey trading for the remainder of the week. Even as earnings are rolling out from a variety of companies, interpreting economic data is going to be a challenge. PPI is out on Thursday along with initial unemployment claims, and Friday, a veritable stew of data comes forth: CPI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, the Empire Index for NY state and the Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment. Things could get very messy down on the trading floors. Good time to stock up on tissues and handkerchiefs because there's likely to be a bit of sweating and some crying before the week is out.
Dow 12,446.88, -58.88 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 2,781.91, -20.71 (0.74%)
S&P 500 1,313.64, -5.85 (0.44%)
NYSE Composite 8,192.75, -35.98 (0.44%)
Declining issues outpaced advancers, 3806-2726. There were 56 new highs and 37 new lows on the NASDAQ. The NYSE showed 46 new highs and 37 new lows. Combined, there were 102 new highs and 74 new lows. Not much margin for error as the tide seems to be turning very bearish, very quickly. Today's volume was a bit perky, with much of it occurring in the final two hours' rush for the exits, another disturbing sign.
NASDAQ Volume 2,028,997,125
NYSE Volume 4,215,946,500
For those of us who drive combustion engine vehicles, another knife in the back from our friendly oil producers, who drove the price of WTI crude up another $2.28, to $97.43. Gold, however, made a new all-time high at $1,562.30, gaining $16.20 on the day. Silver added 35 cents to $36.10.
With gold and silver rising, stocks falling, and, by the way, the 10-year note down to a yield of 2.87% - from 3.12% a week ago - all signs point to a very rough patch dead ahead. The flattening of the yield curve is happening at an unprecedentedly rapid pace. The clowns in Washington better come to a deal soon, like tomorrow, because financial armageddon awaits. The same goes for the millionaire players and billionaire owners of the NFL. People are tired of gamesmanship and waiting.
Now is the time for decisive action.
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Interest Rate Math and the Gathering Collapse of GDP
Taking a break from the usual, tired explanations of why the economy is imploding or why stocks went up or down on a particular day, today we will endeavor to discovre how much money is being lost to the US economy via the Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy, that drives all other rates towards ZERO.
The idea for this enterprise came from an article n the September, 2010, edition of Reader's Digest, titled "Bonus Question" by Michael Crowley, abot how Wall Street profits at the expense of the middle class, especially through low interest rates. There's a podcast of the article available here.
The premise is simple. A long time ago, somebody, probably one or both of our parents, told us that saving was a good idea. And it was, especially when you could get 5% interest in a savings account.
Well, times have changed. One per cent is now the norm for CDs, savings accounts, money markets and other similar investments. So, the question emerges: how much has the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) cost the middle class and the overall GDP?
Let's take an example of a person or couple having put away $300,000 for retirement, their plan, to retire on that money (they'll probably need more) and use the interest to pay for much of their daily living expenses. At 5% interest, they'd be looking at $15,000 a year, which is a very good start and would cover at least food, fuel and probably most of the rent.
But, let's suppose they've still retired, but they are only earning 1% today. That's only $3000, or, in other words, $12,000 that now has to come out of the principal, so every year that the Fed keeps ZIRP in place, they'll have to spend more and their net worth declines, impoverishing themselves and their heirs, someday in the future.
Editor's Note: I would like to point out that I'm using $300,000 in savings as an example here, figuring it is probably around the median savings of the already retired. Surely, many have saved less, but quite a few have saved even more. Actually, prior to 2000, the number was probably quite a bit higher.
OK, so now we can clearly see that the ZIRP has benefitted banks and Wall Street, as they borrow at nearly zero and lend at higher rates while investing in riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Retired individuals have no doubt tried to do the same with their savings, but the results have been poor over the past decade.
Getting back to our original premise, we have an average of $12,000 being lost to ZIRP, the money coming from the principal rather than interest. But suppose we say that this money is not being spent - and in some very real ways it isn't - because these retired folks are spending less on discretionary items since they have poor prospects for the future. Any way you look at it, ZIRP is causing a reduction in spending by seniors.
How much? Good question. We took a look and found that in April, 2011, there were 36,378,000 people collecting Social Security aged 65 or over.
So, simple math tells us that because of the Fed's ZIRP, there's roughly (36,378,000 X $12,000) $436,536,000,000 being lost in general spending to the economy. That's close to half a trillion dollars, and since we're two-and-a-half years into the Fed's ZIRP experiment, we lost that much in 2009, again in 2010 and are well on our way to doing it again this year.
Also, it's worth pointing out that Fed Chairman Greenspan, Ben Bernanke's predecessor, cut the federal funds rate to one per cent in the aftermath of the dot-com bust in 2001. Through the decade of the 2000s, the federal funds rate never got higher than 5 1/2%, and for much of the time it was well below that level, so the savings destruction has been going on for some time. We have been slowly eroding the wealth of seniors and future generations for over a decade and the effects are beginning to become quite a strain on the US economy.
So, how much damage is being done. If we can trust that number of $436,536,000,000 as the difference between 5% interest on savings versus 1%, it comes to about 3% of annual GDP, about the same amount the government would like the economy to grow annually. With the Fed's ZIRP in place, though, GDP will actually have to grow 6% just to make up the slack. And it isn't. It's not even close.
Charles Hugh Smith penned a very poignant essay on the topic of GDP on his Of Two Minds blog, in which he suggests that the economy isn't growing at all, thus reinforcing our point.
Since economics is mostly guesswork, extrapolation and statistics, please take this back-of-the-envelope with appropriate grains of salt, but the upshot is still the same: the Fed is actively destroying the savings and spending potential of seniors and anyone else who might be prudent enough to want to put something away for "a rainy day." Add in the implications of inflation, and it becomes clear why we're stuck in a no-growth economy and why deflation is not only desirable, but the best path out of our current morass.
Now, for our usual market recap:
Stocks went almost nowhere today, bothered by Wednesday's wicked sell-off and cognizant of Friday morning's May Non-farm Payroll release. Nobody seemed willing to put much "risk on", as they say, in advance of what could be a game-changing number. Most of the residual pain from Wednesday was felt in the Dow and in commodities, with the notable exception of crude oil (go figure).
Two pieces of economic data should have moved markets further to the downside, but the stubborn "recovery" crowd still refuses to buckle.
Initial jobless claims came in again above expectations (400,000) at 424,000, and factory orders fell 1.2% in April. This news, though bad, is about as good as anything seen in the past month. The Dow Jones Industrials were down nearly 100 points close to midday, but, as usual, recovered during the afternoon.
Dow 12,248.55, -41.59 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,773.31, +4.12 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,312.94, -1.61 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,277.76, -3.83 (0.05%)
Declining issues topped advancers, 3411-3119. On the NASDAQ, there were 30 new highs and uh, oh, 68 new lows. The NYSE saw 48 new highs and 47 new lows. Taken together, we have the expected flip, with 78 new highs being exceeded by 115 new lows. Unless the BLS pulls a rabbit out of its hat tomorrow morning and announces 150,000 or more new jobs created in May, it could mark a very important market turn that has taken many months to set up.
Volume on the day was back to pedestrian, depressed levels.
NASDAQ Volume 1,886,108,625
NYSE Volume 4,256,270,500
Crude oil was lower for much of the session, but finished the day up 11 cents, at $100.40, even though the government reported an inventory build of 2,878,000 barrels for the week ending 5/28.
Gold was punished again for being an alternative to paper money, losing $4.80, to $1534.30, though still very near all-time highs. Silver took more lumps, down 64 cents, to $36.18.
Just for fun, here's a chart which helps explain where the US economy is really heading via the Debt-to-GDP ratio:
And if that doesn't whet your technical appetite, try this long term chart of the S&P 500 measured in gold.
The idea for this enterprise came from an article n the September, 2010, edition of Reader's Digest, titled "Bonus Question" by Michael Crowley, abot how Wall Street profits at the expense of the middle class, especially through low interest rates. There's a podcast of the article available here.
The premise is simple. A long time ago, somebody, probably one or both of our parents, told us that saving was a good idea. And it was, especially when you could get 5% interest in a savings account.
Well, times have changed. One per cent is now the norm for CDs, savings accounts, money markets and other similar investments. So, the question emerges: how much has the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) cost the middle class and the overall GDP?
Let's take an example of a person or couple having put away $300,000 for retirement, their plan, to retire on that money (they'll probably need more) and use the interest to pay for much of their daily living expenses. At 5% interest, they'd be looking at $15,000 a year, which is a very good start and would cover at least food, fuel and probably most of the rent.
But, let's suppose they've still retired, but they are only earning 1% today. That's only $3000, or, in other words, $12,000 that now has to come out of the principal, so every year that the Fed keeps ZIRP in place, they'll have to spend more and their net worth declines, impoverishing themselves and their heirs, someday in the future.
Editor's Note: I would like to point out that I'm using $300,000 in savings as an example here, figuring it is probably around the median savings of the already retired. Surely, many have saved less, but quite a few have saved even more. Actually, prior to 2000, the number was probably quite a bit higher.
OK, so now we can clearly see that the ZIRP has benefitted banks and Wall Street, as they borrow at nearly zero and lend at higher rates while investing in riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Retired individuals have no doubt tried to do the same with their savings, but the results have been poor over the past decade.
Getting back to our original premise, we have an average of $12,000 being lost to ZIRP, the money coming from the principal rather than interest. But suppose we say that this money is not being spent - and in some very real ways it isn't - because these retired folks are spending less on discretionary items since they have poor prospects for the future. Any way you look at it, ZIRP is causing a reduction in spending by seniors.
How much? Good question. We took a look and found that in April, 2011, there were 36,378,000 people collecting Social Security aged 65 or over.
So, simple math tells us that because of the Fed's ZIRP, there's roughly (36,378,000 X $12,000) $436,536,000,000 being lost in general spending to the economy. That's close to half a trillion dollars, and since we're two-and-a-half years into the Fed's ZIRP experiment, we lost that much in 2009, again in 2010 and are well on our way to doing it again this year.
Also, it's worth pointing out that Fed Chairman Greenspan, Ben Bernanke's predecessor, cut the federal funds rate to one per cent in the aftermath of the dot-com bust in 2001. Through the decade of the 2000s, the federal funds rate never got higher than 5 1/2%, and for much of the time it was well below that level, so the savings destruction has been going on for some time. We have been slowly eroding the wealth of seniors and future generations for over a decade and the effects are beginning to become quite a strain on the US economy.
So, how much damage is being done. If we can trust that number of $436,536,000,000 as the difference between 5% interest on savings versus 1%, it comes to about 3% of annual GDP, about the same amount the government would like the economy to grow annually. With the Fed's ZIRP in place, though, GDP will actually have to grow 6% just to make up the slack. And it isn't. It's not even close.
Charles Hugh Smith penned a very poignant essay on the topic of GDP on his Of Two Minds blog, in which he suggests that the economy isn't growing at all, thus reinforcing our point.
Since economics is mostly guesswork, extrapolation and statistics, please take this back-of-the-envelope with appropriate grains of salt, but the upshot is still the same: the Fed is actively destroying the savings and spending potential of seniors and anyone else who might be prudent enough to want to put something away for "a rainy day." Add in the implications of inflation, and it becomes clear why we're stuck in a no-growth economy and why deflation is not only desirable, but the best path out of our current morass.
Now, for our usual market recap:
Stocks went almost nowhere today, bothered by Wednesday's wicked sell-off and cognizant of Friday morning's May Non-farm Payroll release. Nobody seemed willing to put much "risk on", as they say, in advance of what could be a game-changing number. Most of the residual pain from Wednesday was felt in the Dow and in commodities, with the notable exception of crude oil (go figure).
Two pieces of economic data should have moved markets further to the downside, but the stubborn "recovery" crowd still refuses to buckle.
Initial jobless claims came in again above expectations (400,000) at 424,000, and factory orders fell 1.2% in April. This news, though bad, is about as good as anything seen in the past month. The Dow Jones Industrials were down nearly 100 points close to midday, but, as usual, recovered during the afternoon.
Dow 12,248.55, -41.59 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,773.31, +4.12 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,312.94, -1.61 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,277.76, -3.83 (0.05%)
Declining issues topped advancers, 3411-3119. On the NASDAQ, there were 30 new highs and uh, oh, 68 new lows. The NYSE saw 48 new highs and 47 new lows. Taken together, we have the expected flip, with 78 new highs being exceeded by 115 new lows. Unless the BLS pulls a rabbit out of its hat tomorrow morning and announces 150,000 or more new jobs created in May, it could mark a very important market turn that has taken many months to set up.
Volume on the day was back to pedestrian, depressed levels.
NASDAQ Volume 1,886,108,625
NYSE Volume 4,256,270,500
Crude oil was lower for much of the session, but finished the day up 11 cents, at $100.40, even though the government reported an inventory build of 2,878,000 barrels for the week ending 5/28.
Gold was punished again for being an alternative to paper money, losing $4.80, to $1534.30, though still very near all-time highs. Silver took more lumps, down 64 cents, to $36.18.
Just for fun, here's a chart which helps explain where the US economy is really heading via the Debt-to-GDP ratio:
And if that doesn't whet your technical appetite, try this long term chart of the S&P 500 measured in gold.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Fed, ZIRP, QE2 Pumps Dow to Highest Close in 27 Months
Since the economy is still looking like something out of a B-grade horror flick, the Fed can take credit for one thing, at least, pumping stocks to levels not since they were going down, two years ago. The Dow Jones Industrials closed at its highest point since September 8 of 2008, when it closed at 11,510.74, on it's way to its eventual bottom on March 8, 2009, of 6547.05.
Today's close of 11,476.54 represents an overall 21-month gain from the bottom, of 75%, one of the most tremendous performances by the stock market in history. However, as we learned in 2008, these gains are largely transitory, on paper, unreal, and can be wiped out in a matter or weeks or months. Further, they have been fostered by trillions of dollars in bailouts, stimulus, fraud and deception on top of an economy that can't seem to move off square one, never mind creating any jobs for real, working Americans.
If it all seems somehow out of whack, it's largely because it is. Between TARP, QE, QE2 and two stimulus plans, the government - and the Fed - has gone deeply into debt and the burden pushed onto the taxpayer in the form of an overgrown public debt and federal budget deficits of over a trillion dollars a year for as far as the eye can see.
Meanwhile, the housing and manufacturing sectors of the economy have been shattered. Home prices are down 25-30% since 2006 on a national basis, with some areas - particularly Nevada, California, Florida and Michigan - experiencing deeper declines. Manufacturing has shed nearly 500,000 businesses since the early 2000s, along with more than 10 million jobs.
Unemployment, even narrowly defined by the BLS, is approaching 10%, though true measures of employment in America put the number closer to 20%, with some estimates ranging as high as 27%. In effect, about one in four able-bodied American under the age of 65 is not gainfully employed full time. This is a condition which cannot continue. High unemployment renders us a welfare state, complete with all the nasty side-effects: high crime rates, rising death rates, lower educational standards and a permanent underclass which now is beginning to occupy the outskirts of major cities across the country and especially in the South and Southwest. Homeless people tend to gather where it's warm enough to sleep out-of-doors, and the numbers are beginning to become staggering statistics.
The FOMC voted today to keep interest rates at ZERO to .25% for the 27th month in a row, neatly matching up with the collapse of the stock market, so, while the Fed has failed on multiple fronts, they get a big round of applause from Wall Street, as the only group seemingly doing just fine are bailed-out bankers and the corporate crack in which they traffic.
The only other measurable group doing well would be coin and bullion dealers and collectors, as gold and silver coins and bullion have appreciated at rates dwarfing stock market gains since 2000. Essentially, both precious metals have quadrupled in price over the past decade and silver, in particular, seems to be just getting started on a lengthy bull run. So long as the Fed keeps monetizing the debt and the banks fail to record and write down their losses, the metals will outperform all other asset classes.
Today's gains were once again truncated by late-day selling, after the FOMC announcement. There's little faith left in equities, as they nervously approach levels which are unsustainable in the current environment. Traders are counting the hours down to the year's end, after which they can make adjustments in January, but we're not quite there yet.
Dow 11,476.54, +47.98 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,627.72, +2.81 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,241.59, +1.13 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite 7,855.22, +5.20 (0.07%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,767,595,125
NYSE Volume 4,579,517,500
Advancing issues trailer decliners, 3067-3346. New highs/lows on the NASDAQ were 158-23 and 176-113 on the NYSE. The high-lows are converging in a hurry, signaling that a major dell-off could occur within days. Volume remained weak. No news there.
Oil pulled back a little on the day, shedding 33 cents, to $88.28, though still close to 2-year highs. Gold was up most of the day, but barely hung onto a $1.40 gain, at $1395.90. Silver was also higher, but is now printing down 4 cents, at $29.51. This, after JP Morgan, in a terse statement, said they had trimmed their exposure to the silver market, the one they are accused of rigging for years and now the subject of a criminal class action suit.
Anecdotal evidence that the holiday shopping season is not at all robust got a kick of reality as Best Buy missed estimates by a wide margin, causing other electronics retailers and related industries to tumble.
Today's close of 11,476.54 represents an overall 21-month gain from the bottom, of 75%, one of the most tremendous performances by the stock market in history. However, as we learned in 2008, these gains are largely transitory, on paper, unreal, and can be wiped out in a matter or weeks or months. Further, they have been fostered by trillions of dollars in bailouts, stimulus, fraud and deception on top of an economy that can't seem to move off square one, never mind creating any jobs for real, working Americans.
If it all seems somehow out of whack, it's largely because it is. Between TARP, QE, QE2 and two stimulus plans, the government - and the Fed - has gone deeply into debt and the burden pushed onto the taxpayer in the form of an overgrown public debt and federal budget deficits of over a trillion dollars a year for as far as the eye can see.
Meanwhile, the housing and manufacturing sectors of the economy have been shattered. Home prices are down 25-30% since 2006 on a national basis, with some areas - particularly Nevada, California, Florida and Michigan - experiencing deeper declines. Manufacturing has shed nearly 500,000 businesses since the early 2000s, along with more than 10 million jobs.
Unemployment, even narrowly defined by the BLS, is approaching 10%, though true measures of employment in America put the number closer to 20%, with some estimates ranging as high as 27%. In effect, about one in four able-bodied American under the age of 65 is not gainfully employed full time. This is a condition which cannot continue. High unemployment renders us a welfare state, complete with all the nasty side-effects: high crime rates, rising death rates, lower educational standards and a permanent underclass which now is beginning to occupy the outskirts of major cities across the country and especially in the South and Southwest. Homeless people tend to gather where it's warm enough to sleep out-of-doors, and the numbers are beginning to become staggering statistics.
The FOMC voted today to keep interest rates at ZERO to .25% for the 27th month in a row, neatly matching up with the collapse of the stock market, so, while the Fed has failed on multiple fronts, they get a big round of applause from Wall Street, as the only group seemingly doing just fine are bailed-out bankers and the corporate crack in which they traffic.
The only other measurable group doing well would be coin and bullion dealers and collectors, as gold and silver coins and bullion have appreciated at rates dwarfing stock market gains since 2000. Essentially, both precious metals have quadrupled in price over the past decade and silver, in particular, seems to be just getting started on a lengthy bull run. So long as the Fed keeps monetizing the debt and the banks fail to record and write down their losses, the metals will outperform all other asset classes.
Today's gains were once again truncated by late-day selling, after the FOMC announcement. There's little faith left in equities, as they nervously approach levels which are unsustainable in the current environment. Traders are counting the hours down to the year's end, after which they can make adjustments in January, but we're not quite there yet.
Dow 11,476.54, +47.98 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,627.72, +2.81 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,241.59, +1.13 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite 7,855.22, +5.20 (0.07%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,767,595,125
NYSE Volume 4,579,517,500
Advancing issues trailer decliners, 3067-3346. New highs/lows on the NASDAQ were 158-23 and 176-113 on the NYSE. The high-lows are converging in a hurry, signaling that a major dell-off could occur within days. Volume remained weak. No news there.
Oil pulled back a little on the day, shedding 33 cents, to $88.28, though still close to 2-year highs. Gold was up most of the day, but barely hung onto a $1.40 gain, at $1395.90. Silver was also higher, but is now printing down 4 cents, at $29.51. This, after JP Morgan, in a terse statement, said they had trimmed their exposure to the silver market, the one they are accused of rigging for years and now the subject of a criminal class action suit.
Anecdotal evidence that the holiday shopping season is not at all robust got a kick of reality as Best Buy missed estimates by a wide margin, causing other electronics retailers and related industries to tumble.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Fed Watchers Get what They Want; Disappoint Late
Stocks were up solidly early in the day, an exceptional note of optimism ahead of the 2:15 pm Fed rate policy decision. The Dow gained as much as 140 points in the early going, with the other indices tagging along with similar percentage gains of roughly 1-1.35%.
When the Fed finally released its statement, Bulls got exactly what they wanted, little to no change in the overall verbiage, with no change in rates. After the normal, brief zig-zagging, the indices stabilized roughly where they were before the announcement, though began to descend slightly between 2:45 and 3:15. With just 45 minutes left in the session, however, a vicious sell-off was undertaken, trimming about 100 points off the Dow's gains and sending the NASDAQ into the red.
As such, stocks finished mixed again, though this time the only index below the unchanged line was the unfortunate NASDAQ, which is a bit confounding, since tech and speculative stocks in the NASDAQ have been responsible for much of the rally over the past 8 months. Monday will mark the end of the 8th month of the rally which began in earnest on March 9, 2009.
Dow 9,802.14, +30.23 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,055.52, -1.80 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,046.50, +1.09 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 6,830.43, +17.73 (0.26%)
Advancing issues were barely beaten by decliners, 3238-3236, with the emphasis on the downside clearly in NASDAQ stocks. However, the subtle change in the high-low indicator augurs better days ahead and a possible end to the market funk of the past two weeks. New highs outpaced new lows, 142-74, the best showing in a week and easily the best so far this month.
Volume was low, another positive, especially considering the late-day sell-off, which, many suspect was nothing more than shrewd tape-painting by insiders seeking an edge for Thursday.
NYSE Volume 6,510,982,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,134,476,250
Commodities were all priced higher as the dollar was weaker throughout the day. Oil was up 80 cents, to $80.40. Gold reached new highs, closing up $2.10, at $1,087.00, though it traded as high as $1095.00. Silver added 22 cents to $17.40.
Prior to the market open, more economic data was released. the ADP Employment Report showed a loss of 203,000 private sector jobs in October, an improvement over September's revised reading of -227,000, but still on the high side. This also bodes well for the October Non-farm payroll report due out prior to Friday's opening bell. First, the ADP report from last month was -254,000 unrevised, and has been revised lower by 27,000. The September non-farm payroll figure was 263,000, just a bit higher than the ADP reading. If the government revises lower, as ADP did, and remains somewhat in line with forecasts, we could see the first reading below 200,000 in over a year on Friday, which would be a real boost to the market.
Some indication of improvement in the jobs picture came on Monday, in the ISM manufacturing index, which showed improvement in the employment outlook segment. The expectation is for a loss of 175-220,000 jobs in the month, though anything below 210,000 would be positive.
Retail sales figures for October will be released prior to the open and they are expected to be solid.
Cisco (CSCO) reported excellent figures for their fiscal 1st quarter after the bell - .36 per share on expectations of .31, and higher revenue than expected - with the stock moving 3-4% higher after hours, hovering around 24.00 per share.
When the Fed finally released its statement, Bulls got exactly what they wanted, little to no change in the overall verbiage, with no change in rates. After the normal, brief zig-zagging, the indices stabilized roughly where they were before the announcement, though began to descend slightly between 2:45 and 3:15. With just 45 minutes left in the session, however, a vicious sell-off was undertaken, trimming about 100 points off the Dow's gains and sending the NASDAQ into the red.
As such, stocks finished mixed again, though this time the only index below the unchanged line was the unfortunate NASDAQ, which is a bit confounding, since tech and speculative stocks in the NASDAQ have been responsible for much of the rally over the past 8 months. Monday will mark the end of the 8th month of the rally which began in earnest on March 9, 2009.
Dow 9,802.14, +30.23 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,055.52, -1.80 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,046.50, +1.09 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 6,830.43, +17.73 (0.26%)
Advancing issues were barely beaten by decliners, 3238-3236, with the emphasis on the downside clearly in NASDAQ stocks. However, the subtle change in the high-low indicator augurs better days ahead and a possible end to the market funk of the past two weeks. New highs outpaced new lows, 142-74, the best showing in a week and easily the best so far this month.
Volume was low, another positive, especially considering the late-day sell-off, which, many suspect was nothing more than shrewd tape-painting by insiders seeking an edge for Thursday.
NYSE Volume 6,510,982,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,134,476,250
Commodities were all priced higher as the dollar was weaker throughout the day. Oil was up 80 cents, to $80.40. Gold reached new highs, closing up $2.10, at $1,087.00, though it traded as high as $1095.00. Silver added 22 cents to $17.40.
Prior to the market open, more economic data was released. the ADP Employment Report showed a loss of 203,000 private sector jobs in October, an improvement over September's revised reading of -227,000, but still on the high side. This also bodes well for the October Non-farm payroll report due out prior to Friday's opening bell. First, the ADP report from last month was -254,000 unrevised, and has been revised lower by 27,000. The September non-farm payroll figure was 263,000, just a bit higher than the ADP reading. If the government revises lower, as ADP did, and remains somewhat in line with forecasts, we could see the first reading below 200,000 in over a year on Friday, which would be a real boost to the market.
Some indication of improvement in the jobs picture came on Monday, in the ISM manufacturing index, which showed improvement in the employment outlook segment. The expectation is for a loss of 175-220,000 jobs in the month, though anything below 210,000 would be positive.
Retail sales figures for October will be released prior to the open and they are expected to be solid.
Cisco (CSCO) reported excellent figures for their fiscal 1st quarter after the bell - .36 per share on expectations of .31, and higher revenue than expected - with the stock moving 3-4% higher after hours, hovering around 24.00 per share.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Stocks Gain, but Clouds Are Forming for Rally's End
In another lackluster session, stocks gained widely on Thursday amid mixed economic news. Prior to the market opening, newly-released unemployment figures showed new claims at 623,000, slightly below last week's revised 636,000, though continuing claims reached another record - 6.788 million - for the 17th straight week.
Data on new home sales for April from the Commerce Department offered little in the way of excitement in either direction, rising 0.3%, an annual pace of 352,000, still well below historical norms.
What really captured investor attention was the $26 billion auction of 7-year Treasury notes, which was better-received than anticipated. After bond prices had fallen precipitously over the past few weeks due to concern of oversupply of government debt, the 10-year note actually rose, dropping yields to more palatable levels... for now. There is still worry that the enormous amount of borrowing the US government will be engaged in over the coming 12-16 months will cause yields to rise, crowding out private investment and making bonds an attractive alternative to stocks.
As explained in yesterday's post, the result of higher interest rates would not only stunt any recovery efforts, but would also be largely inflationary. It's nearly a foregone conclusion that interest rates will rise and inflation will follow, the only unanswered questions are how high and when these events will occur and how severely they will affect the economy. For today, at least, the answers remain mysteries, though the sentiment appears positive. Expect more of this kind of choppy day-to-day activity in the markets for the time being.
Eventually, however, stocks are doomed in the near term, as p/e ratios on the S&P 500 have reached extreme highs and dividends have reached extreme low rates of return. It will take some time for the Wall St. sharpies to unload their recent purchases onto the unsuspecting public, but another round of market shock is surely in store for the average 401k investor.
Dow 8,403.80, +103.78 (1.25%)
NASDAQ 1,751.79, +20.71 (1.20%)
S&P 500 906.83, +13.77 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 5,917.06, +93.50 (1.61%)
Advancing issues decisively took back control from decliners, 3988-2463, though new lows continued their domination over new highs, 66-47. Volume was only slightly better than the first two sessions of this shortened trading week, an insignificant reading for now.
NYSE Volume 1,368,613,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,237,013,000
In the commodities markets, oil continued its seemingly unstoppable ascent, gaining another $1.63, to a multi-month high of $65.08. with the price of oil rising as dramatically as it has over the past four-five months (more than $25 per barrel) the question of just how much strain it puts on the general economy has to be asked. Every additional dollar spent on gas for regular transportation is another dollar taken out of circulation in the consumer-led economy. Eventually, high gas prices will do more damage to any recovery - if one ever does occur - than high interest rates or bad tax policy. It's absurd to think that Americans can survive 9%-and-growing unemployment and high gas prices. Oddly enough, gas (and in a more general sense, all energy) prices are the sacred cow neither the administration nor the congress will address properly. Tighter control on energy prices would be a major step toward getting the economy out of recession and the lack of oversight is proof that the federal government is not really serious about future growth, only about their future electability.
As the government diddles along without any general direction, the precious metals have been staging another powerful rally since late March. Gold gained again, up $8.00, to $963.20, as was silver, up 30 cents, to $15.16. The rally in metals and higher bond yields are screaming that the equities rally has stalled and is about to roll over. Stocks cannot remain at these unrealistic levels much longer, especially with slower summer months dead ahead.
Data on new home sales for April from the Commerce Department offered little in the way of excitement in either direction, rising 0.3%, an annual pace of 352,000, still well below historical norms.
What really captured investor attention was the $26 billion auction of 7-year Treasury notes, which was better-received than anticipated. After bond prices had fallen precipitously over the past few weeks due to concern of oversupply of government debt, the 10-year note actually rose, dropping yields to more palatable levels... for now. There is still worry that the enormous amount of borrowing the US government will be engaged in over the coming 12-16 months will cause yields to rise, crowding out private investment and making bonds an attractive alternative to stocks.
As explained in yesterday's post, the result of higher interest rates would not only stunt any recovery efforts, but would also be largely inflationary. It's nearly a foregone conclusion that interest rates will rise and inflation will follow, the only unanswered questions are how high and when these events will occur and how severely they will affect the economy. For today, at least, the answers remain mysteries, though the sentiment appears positive. Expect more of this kind of choppy day-to-day activity in the markets for the time being.
Eventually, however, stocks are doomed in the near term, as p/e ratios on the S&P 500 have reached extreme highs and dividends have reached extreme low rates of return. It will take some time for the Wall St. sharpies to unload their recent purchases onto the unsuspecting public, but another round of market shock is surely in store for the average 401k investor.
Dow 8,403.80, +103.78 (1.25%)
NASDAQ 1,751.79, +20.71 (1.20%)
S&P 500 906.83, +13.77 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 5,917.06, +93.50 (1.61%)
Advancing issues decisively took back control from decliners, 3988-2463, though new lows continued their domination over new highs, 66-47. Volume was only slightly better than the first two sessions of this shortened trading week, an insignificant reading for now.
NYSE Volume 1,368,613,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,237,013,000
In the commodities markets, oil continued its seemingly unstoppable ascent, gaining another $1.63, to a multi-month high of $65.08. with the price of oil rising as dramatically as it has over the past four-five months (more than $25 per barrel) the question of just how much strain it puts on the general economy has to be asked. Every additional dollar spent on gas for regular transportation is another dollar taken out of circulation in the consumer-led economy. Eventually, high gas prices will do more damage to any recovery - if one ever does occur - than high interest rates or bad tax policy. It's absurd to think that Americans can survive 9%-and-growing unemployment and high gas prices. Oddly enough, gas (and in a more general sense, all energy) prices are the sacred cow neither the administration nor the congress will address properly. Tighter control on energy prices would be a major step toward getting the economy out of recession and the lack of oversight is proof that the federal government is not really serious about future growth, only about their future electability.
As the government diddles along without any general direction, the precious metals have been staging another powerful rally since late March. Gold gained again, up $8.00, to $963.20, as was silver, up 30 cents, to $15.16. The rally in metals and higher bond yields are screaming that the equities rally has stalled and is about to roll over. Stocks cannot remain at these unrealistic levels much longer, especially with slower summer months dead ahead.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Are the Markets FED Up?
The FOMC of the Federal Reserve Board reduced, as expected, the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25% to 4.50%. This was the second consecutive reduction in the federal funds rate, following September's 50 basis point cut.
The markets responded with common bravado, with the major indices up sharply. In the statement released today, the Fed stated that following this reduction, the inflation risks roughly parallel that of economic deterioration, meaning that they may pause when they next meet on December 11.
Read the full Fed statement.
Dow 13,930.01 +137.54; NASDAQ 2,859.12 +42.41; S&P 500 1,549.38 +18.36; NYSE Composite 10,311.61 +146.64
Essentially, the Fed knows they cannot lower rates without regard to the intense pricing pressure from commodities, especially oil, because doing so would risk the erosion of the dollar even further. This puts Bernanke and the Fed in quite the prickly position. Wall Street and the Republicans want softer rates and a solid economy, while economists everywhere are telling them that the US dollar cannot take any more of a beating. Somewhere in the middle is the US population, seemingly stuck between a stagnant economy and higher prices for everything - stagflation.
What stood out in today's trading was the action of the economically-sensitive banking sector and the overall muted reaction to the smallest cut the Fed could make. The Dow, just prior to the release, was already up about 90 points on news that 3rd quarter GDP checked in at a solid 3.9%, so it only added 40 points on the rate news.
Stocks such as Countrywide Financial (CFC), Citigroup (C), Merrill-Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC), actually lost ground following the release. All but Countrywide - which dropped a full point after the release - regained all or most of the ground given up, mostly due to short-covering rallies. The banking sector is in crisis mode and many investors are acutely aware of the condition of credit markets.
As if to magnify the folly of the Fed's latest move, oil for December delivery advanced by a huge number, up $4.15 to close at $94.53. Gold closed sharply higher - up $8.20 to $796.00 - as did silver, gaining 13 cents to $14.46.
The commodity markets responded even more bluntly than the equity markets to Bernanke's boneheaded maneuvers over the past two FOMC meetings. One has to question both the validity of government data and the wisdom of the Fed as currently composed. On Friday, October Non-Farm Payroll data is announced prior to the open and that data will shed more light on the economy.
Let's all join hands and pray that the Fed did the right thing at the right time.... On the other hand, let's all go out and have a couple of drinks. We're going to need something to stiffen our resolve for what's ahead for the US economy - and it isn't a pretty picture.
Short bank and financial stocks. Bank failures are a sorry possibility and more severe economic disruptions will occur in 2008.
NYSE Volume 3,957,900,250
NASDAQ Volume 2,593,399,750
The markets responded with common bravado, with the major indices up sharply. In the statement released today, the Fed stated that following this reduction, the inflation risks roughly parallel that of economic deterioration, meaning that they may pause when they next meet on December 11.
Read the full Fed statement.
Dow 13,930.01 +137.54; NASDAQ 2,859.12 +42.41; S&P 500 1,549.38 +18.36; NYSE Composite 10,311.61 +146.64
Essentially, the Fed knows they cannot lower rates without regard to the intense pricing pressure from commodities, especially oil, because doing so would risk the erosion of the dollar even further. This puts Bernanke and the Fed in quite the prickly position. Wall Street and the Republicans want softer rates and a solid economy, while economists everywhere are telling them that the US dollar cannot take any more of a beating. Somewhere in the middle is the US population, seemingly stuck between a stagnant economy and higher prices for everything - stagflation.
What stood out in today's trading was the action of the economically-sensitive banking sector and the overall muted reaction to the smallest cut the Fed could make. The Dow, just prior to the release, was already up about 90 points on news that 3rd quarter GDP checked in at a solid 3.9%, so it only added 40 points on the rate news.
Stocks such as Countrywide Financial (CFC), Citigroup (C), Merrill-Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC), actually lost ground following the release. All but Countrywide - which dropped a full point after the release - regained all or most of the ground given up, mostly due to short-covering rallies. The banking sector is in crisis mode and many investors are acutely aware of the condition of credit markets.
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Breadth was actually solid, with advancing issues leading decliners by a 22-9 margin. New highs outpaced new lows, 420-233.Edmonton, Vancouver, Bad Credit, Divorced, Bankruptcy OK. Apply online.
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As if to magnify the folly of the Fed's latest move, oil for December delivery advanced by a huge number, up $4.15 to close at $94.53. Gold closed sharply higher - up $8.20 to $796.00 - as did silver, gaining 13 cents to $14.46.
The commodity markets responded even more bluntly than the equity markets to Bernanke's boneheaded maneuvers over the past two FOMC meetings. One has to question both the validity of government data and the wisdom of the Fed as currently composed. On Friday, October Non-Farm Payroll data is announced prior to the open and that data will shed more light on the economy.
Let's all join hands and pray that the Fed did the right thing at the right time.... On the other hand, let's all go out and have a couple of drinks. We're going to need something to stiffen our resolve for what's ahead for the US economy - and it isn't a pretty picture.
Short bank and financial stocks. Bank failures are a sorry possibility and more severe economic disruptions will occur in 2008.
NYSE Volume 3,957,900,250
NASDAQ Volume 2,593,399,750
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Inflation, Anyone?
Stocks on US indices closed lower again on Tuesday following a lackluster performance to open the week's trading. While investors hunt for bargains, search for insight and generally take whatever profits are available, many were glued to the bond bourses, which pushed yields to recently-unprecedented levels. The 10-year note closed with a yield of 5.248%, up more than 100 basis points from yesterday.
Dow 13,295.01 -129.95; NASDAQ 2,549.77 -22.38; S&P 500 1,493.00 -16.12; NYSE Composite 9,724.49 -117.24
As interest rates rise, so do inflation fears, or vice versa, depending upon which side of the fence you're so inclined. Consumers have watched energy - and to some extent, food - prices climb without pause for the past six months, and the pain at the pump is finally spreading to stocks and bonds.
It's little wonder that bond yields are rising. They've been at or below the level of inflation for years. The current upticking indicates a number of thorny issues are about to slap the US economy in the face: a slumping housing market, stagnant wages, China's floating of the Yuan and the twin deficits produced by the government in trade and budget, to name just a few.
The price increases in just about everything, juxtaposed against a weak dollar, are making investments in US stocks somewhat difficult to swallow for foreigners who must fund US excess or watch as the entire global economy dissipates into the ether. They don't have much of a choice, but there are moments - like the past few weeks - in which they take stock, pause, and sell. It isn't perfect science, but it does make as much sense as any other explanation for recent market ups-and-downs.
Today's dip certainly cannot be laid at the feet of the oil barons. The price of their filthy, slimy lucre actually declined by 62 cents, though it's still a pricey $65.35. The mini-rally in metals was cut short as both gold and silver gave back much of yesterday's gains.
Tracking the internals, today's market losses were indeed as bad as they looked. Declining issues overwhelmed advancers at nearly a 5-1 rate. New lows were over the top at 236 as compared to the paltry number of new highs: 124. Not to worry. We've been down this particular road before and won't become concerned until the new lows reach and remain above 320.
Relax, we're in an adjustment/consolidation phase.
Dow 13,295.01 -129.95; NASDAQ 2,549.77 -22.38; S&P 500 1,493.00 -16.12; NYSE Composite 9,724.49 -117.24
As interest rates rise, so do inflation fears, or vice versa, depending upon which side of the fence you're so inclined. Consumers have watched energy - and to some extent, food - prices climb without pause for the past six months, and the pain at the pump is finally spreading to stocks and bonds.
It's little wonder that bond yields are rising. They've been at or below the level of inflation for years. The current upticking indicates a number of thorny issues are about to slap the US economy in the face: a slumping housing market, stagnant wages, China's floating of the Yuan and the twin deficits produced by the government in trade and budget, to name just a few.
The price increases in just about everything, juxtaposed against a weak dollar, are making investments in US stocks somewhat difficult to swallow for foreigners who must fund US excess or watch as the entire global economy dissipates into the ether. They don't have much of a choice, but there are moments - like the past few weeks - in which they take stock, pause, and sell. It isn't perfect science, but it does make as much sense as any other explanation for recent market ups-and-downs.
Today's dip certainly cannot be laid at the feet of the oil barons. The price of their filthy, slimy lucre actually declined by 62 cents, though it's still a pricey $65.35. The mini-rally in metals was cut short as both gold and silver gave back much of yesterday's gains.
Tracking the internals, today's market losses were indeed as bad as they looked. Declining issues overwhelmed advancers at nearly a 5-1 rate. New lows were over the top at 236 as compared to the paltry number of new highs: 124. Not to worry. We've been down this particular road before and won't become concerned until the new lows reach and remain above 320.
Relax, we're in an adjustment/consolidation phase.
Monday, June 11, 2007
Half A Loaf
US markets witnessed both sides of the ledger on Monday as the Dow and NASDAQ closed marginally lower while the S&P 500 hung on to a measly 1-point-and-change gain. Following last week's roller coaster, indecision was the rule of the day, amid low volume, though typical for a summer session.
Dow 13,423.01 -1.38; NASDAQ 2,572.15 -1.39; S&P 500 1,508.97 +1.30; NYSE Composite 9,941.73 +15.66
Advancing issues lagged decliners 11-10, though some relative strength was shown in the 166 new highs as compared to 126 new lows.
Interest rates and inflation are still weighing on investment decisions. The benchmark 10-year note is yielding 5.137%, a tempting rate for conservative investors. Unfortunately, with inflation galloping along at a 3% or better rate, the 2% spread is only a hedge or a way to preserve money rather than making some.
On the heels of the bond momentum comes a healthy gain in gold and silver. Both were up on the day - gold by 8.70, to finish at $659.00; silver gained 24 cents to $13.28. The metals have been stuck in a range for 14 months and are closer to the low end of their respective ranges than the high end and have not moved ahead since the spectacular bull stage of 2002-2006.
However, with bonds rising, the metals should follow, though they were likely overbought at the high ends of the 2006 rally. Thus, they also serve only as hedges, not investments unless one is willing to actively trade them through their troughs and peaks.
Oil was back up again by $1.21, closing at $65.97. This price is still close to catastrophic for the US and world economy and not enough is being done by either the financial world, environmentalists or governments to force the high prices back down to more comfortable levels, say, $45-50 per barrel. The protracted expensive nature of crude and distillates has become a significant drag on growth as the most recent GDP illustrates.
The longer the oil companies and sheiks are allowed to maintain near-predatory pricing, the greater the threat to standards of living worldwide. Without relief, costs for almost everything will continue to spiral higher.
A few thoughts for tomorrow and the next day.
Dow 13,423.01 -1.38; NASDAQ 2,572.15 -1.39; S&P 500 1,508.97 +1.30; NYSE Composite 9,941.73 +15.66
Advancing issues lagged decliners 11-10, though some relative strength was shown in the 166 new highs as compared to 126 new lows.
Interest rates and inflation are still weighing on investment decisions. The benchmark 10-year note is yielding 5.137%, a tempting rate for conservative investors. Unfortunately, with inflation galloping along at a 3% or better rate, the 2% spread is only a hedge or a way to preserve money rather than making some.
On the heels of the bond momentum comes a healthy gain in gold and silver. Both were up on the day - gold by 8.70, to finish at $659.00; silver gained 24 cents to $13.28. The metals have been stuck in a range for 14 months and are closer to the low end of their respective ranges than the high end and have not moved ahead since the spectacular bull stage of 2002-2006.
However, with bonds rising, the metals should follow, though they were likely overbought at the high ends of the 2006 rally. Thus, they also serve only as hedges, not investments unless one is willing to actively trade them through their troughs and peaks.
Oil was back up again by $1.21, closing at $65.97. This price is still close to catastrophic for the US and world economy and not enough is being done by either the financial world, environmentalists or governments to force the high prices back down to more comfortable levels, say, $45-50 per barrel. The protracted expensive nature of crude and distillates has become a significant drag on growth as the most recent GDP illustrates.
The longer the oil companies and sheiks are allowed to maintain near-predatory pricing, the greater the threat to standards of living worldwide. Without relief, costs for almost everything will continue to spiral higher.
A few thoughts for tomorrow and the next day.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Stocks Rocked Again
This week is turning into one big downer for investors. The Dow is down over 400 points on the week and the other indices have experienced similar losses. What's troubling is that each day has been worse than the preceding one. If this trend continues into Friday, it could be a serious melt-down.
What has changed on Wall Street is nothing more than perception. The US economy didn't suddenly implode, only the point of view from the standpoint of institutional investors. There are two drivers currently: interest rate fears and profit taking. And while the latter is likely the main cause of the three-day downturn, either is cause for serious alarm over the long term.
Dow 13,266.73 -198.94; NASDAQ 2,541.38 -45.80; S&P 500 1,490.72 -26.66; NYSE Composite 9,720.94 -174.07
Some cause for concern in the internal indicators as declining issues outdid advancing ones by nearly a 5-1 margin. That's steep. Also, the new highs / new lows indicator has flipped to the negative, with 126 new highs and 197 new lows. That's the first negative reading in over 6 weeks.
The highs/lows indicator is of particular interest if it is persistent. If this current spate of selling is going to last, we would like to see this indicator negative for at least 3 straight days and this is only the first. It may just be a short-lived summer swoon, and the overall heavy volume today would seem to be indicative of that. There's money being taken off the table. It will soon be searching for a new home and there likely location will be in US equities.
Lost amid all the stock selling and bond wrangling (the 10-year topped 5% on Wednesday and hit 5.13% on Thursday), is the recent strength in the dollar against selected foreign currencies, especially the British Pound and the Euro. It's shown some stability for a change and change, in that regard, is good.
The sore spot still remains. Oil jumped another 97 cents on the day to close at $66.93, and with that kind of pricing in place, there will be no relief at the gas pumps this summer. The wear and tear on Americans' pockets and psyches is palpable. If consumer spending takes another hit - coupled with inflationary pressures - the Big Oil companies can be singled out as villains, and rightly so.
Gold tumbled nearly $10. Silver lost 24 cents. Food prices continue to escalate.
Tomorrow will be the most interesting day of the week to see if the trend continues or buyers find bargains in the bushes.
What has changed on Wall Street is nothing more than perception. The US economy didn't suddenly implode, only the point of view from the standpoint of institutional investors. There are two drivers currently: interest rate fears and profit taking. And while the latter is likely the main cause of the three-day downturn, either is cause for serious alarm over the long term.
Dow 13,266.73 -198.94; NASDAQ 2,541.38 -45.80; S&P 500 1,490.72 -26.66; NYSE Composite 9,720.94 -174.07
Some cause for concern in the internal indicators as declining issues outdid advancing ones by nearly a 5-1 margin. That's steep. Also, the new highs / new lows indicator has flipped to the negative, with 126 new highs and 197 new lows. That's the first negative reading in over 6 weeks.
The highs/lows indicator is of particular interest if it is persistent. If this current spate of selling is going to last, we would like to see this indicator negative for at least 3 straight days and this is only the first. It may just be a short-lived summer swoon, and the overall heavy volume today would seem to be indicative of that. There's money being taken off the table. It will soon be searching for a new home and there likely location will be in US equities.
Lost amid all the stock selling and bond wrangling (the 10-year topped 5% on Wednesday and hit 5.13% on Thursday), is the recent strength in the dollar against selected foreign currencies, especially the British Pound and the Euro. It's shown some stability for a change and change, in that regard, is good.
The sore spot still remains. Oil jumped another 97 cents on the day to close at $66.93, and with that kind of pricing in place, there will be no relief at the gas pumps this summer. The wear and tear on Americans' pockets and psyches is palpable. If consumer spending takes another hit - coupled with inflationary pressures - the Big Oil companies can be singled out as villains, and rightly so.
Gold tumbled nearly $10. Silver lost 24 cents. Food prices continue to escalate.
Tomorrow will be the most interesting day of the week to see if the trend continues or buyers find bargains in the bushes.
Monday, May 14, 2007
New Top for Dow, Other Indices Fall Late; Gas at Record $3.10 per Gallon
The markets were cruising along in positive territory Monday until mid-day when everything began to slide. By the close, only the Dow remained on the plus side, setting another record high finish.
Dow 13,346.78 +20.56; NASDAQ 2,546.44 -15.78; S&P 500 1,503.15 -2.70; NYSE Composite 9,765.38 -21.65
It was a split decision in more ways than one. Declining issues beat advancers by a better than 2-1 margin, though new highs upticked to 386 against 116 new lows. There's a bit of churning going on as investors take profits, reassess and reinvest.
According to general assumptions, much of today's action was attributable to apprehension regarding the monthly release of the government's Consumer Price Index figures, the April numbers due out tomorrow morning prior to the market's open.
Dow 13,346.78 +20.56; NASDAQ 2,546.44 -15.78; S&P 500 1,503.15 -2.70; NYSE Composite 9,765.38 -21.65
It was a split decision in more ways than one. Declining issues beat advancers by a better than 2-1 margin, though new highs upticked to 386 against 116 new lows. There's a bit of churning going on as investors take profits, reassess and reinvest.
According to general assumptions, much of today's action was attributable to apprehension regarding the monthly release of the government's Consumer Price Index figures, the April numbers due out tomorrow morning prior to the market's open.
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Conventional wisdom seems to be that if the numbers are bad (i.e., they show an inflationary trend), the Fed may be influenced to do nothing, or worse, raise rates, when the markets are hoping for some easing. If the headline number comes in at 0.5% or less, with the core at 0.2%, that should allay investor fears, but anything over those figures will be cause for concern, especially at the Fed, which has vowed for years to keep inflation under control while failing miserably in the process.
Regardless of Fed performance, Bernanke and company has made reference to an "inflation target" of between 1 and 2 % (using the core number, of course, which excluded food and energy) and they will use the tried and true interest rate hike to cool off the economy should they determine inflationary risk to be at an intolerable level.
Whatever the Fed does has little to do with the fundamentals of individual stocks, though an interest rate increase would cast a significant pall over Wall Street. Most days are precarious for investors and speculators, though being in record territory does impart some peculiar thought processes. On the one hand, stocks are robust and the economic picture is rosy. Meanwhile, the pessimist sees this high-flying behavior an open invitation for everything to come crashing down.
In the long run, it's probably going to take an event more significant than a 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate to stop the party.
Side notes: Sure enough, the only time I make a prediction on an individual stock, it goes the other way. On Wednesday of last week, I noted that Marvel Enterprises (MVL) may be considered for a long term hold. As of today, it has slipped nearly 3 points from where I called it a buy to 26.81. I called the stock with an 18-month upside in the 38-42 range. I suppose all I can do now is reiterate my position. At it's current level Marvel sports a forward P/E ratio around 17. It is shouting, "buy" now; any lower, it will be screaming. This is not a falling knife situation. Once options expire on Friday, expect a congenial rebound.
Lest I forget, oil grabbed a bid on a Saudi pledge not to increase production. It closed modestly higher, up 9 cents to $62.46, and every American must be grateful to our Vice President, Mr. Cheney, for all he did while in the Middle East last week. The Lundberg Survey quoted the national average for unleaded regular gas at an all-time high of $3.10 per gallon on Monday.
Tomorrow, May 15, is the date certain for the "American gas boycott" whereby we're not supposed to buy any gas. Nobody seriously expects the effort to have any effect at all, though the sentiment of millions will be with anyone who refrains for a day. A better solution would be to have a national no-driving day. That could be effective.
I have two suggestions. One is to stay home and drink Canadian beer. In most northern states, it can be had for about the same price per gallon as gas, and it goes into you, not your car. Plus, the effects on one's mental well being are far superior.
My second suggestion is for Big Oil to just skip $4/gallon and go straight to $5. They have shown no propensity to stop increasing the price, so why not just goose it up good? They can always lower it later on and look good by comparison.
Gold and silver were both off marginally. Somehow, their fates are tied to oil's, though the relationship has become tenuous at best.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Fed Does Nothing, Stocks, Oil Skyrocket
The Federal Open Markets Committee, the arm of the Federal Reserve that regulates interest rates, decided to do nothing today, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 5.25%. Upon the release of the non-news announcement, every trader on Wall Street apparently began buying everything they could in the 1 1/2 hours remaining in the session.
The Dow shot up 175 points in the 45 minutes after the Fed non-movement. Never has there been so much ado about nothing. Shakespeare would have been proud!
If this is the reaction that the markets are going to display towards what is essentially a non-event (and they do it time and again), one wonders what some real news might produce.
Dow 12,447.52 +159.42; NASDAQ 2,455.92 +47.71; S&P 500 1,435.04 +24.10; NYSE Composite 9,317.73 +159.46
It was as though somebody (Ben Bernanke) waved a magic wand over Wall Street and all the problems of the past 6 months were magically wiped away. Maybe it's the nation's penchant for selective short term memory loss, but it was just four weeks ago that the Dow lost more than 400 points, and less than 2 weeks ago that the sub-prime mortgage lending blowup began (and hasn't ended). Why, it was less than a week ago that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by more than double what the experts had been predicting.
Maybe there are a lot of suckers out there. Maybe the correction is really over after just a 6-8% decline on the major indices. Maybe after 52 months of a steadily rising bull market, a one month respite is all this market can handle.
Maybe I'm wrong, but there certainly seems to be a great deal of really, really, stupid money out there. Stupid isn't even the right word to describe today's trade. Insane, criminally insane, might be closer to the truth.
Advancers trounced declining issues by nearly a 5-1 margin. New highs outpaced new lows 380 to 71. That's a pair of numbers which would normally have me shouting "turnaround" but the drama of today's metoric rise is lost on me. I'll call the end of the correction when it actually ends, not when some monstrosity of market mockery says it's over.
Amid all the late afternoon hoopla over the Fed's indecision, nobody noticed (or cared) that oil was up sharply, as the April contract expired yesterday at $56.60. Today's new May futures contract has oil at $59.61, only a $3/barrel increase in one day. Yes, sir, there certainly is a load of stupid, ignorant, moronic money out there, and most of it is in the form of Mr. and Mrs. Average Joe American's retirement plans.
Good luck with that!
The Dow shot up 175 points in the 45 minutes after the Fed non-movement. Never has there been so much ado about nothing. Shakespeare would have been proud!
If this is the reaction that the markets are going to display towards what is essentially a non-event (and they do it time and again), one wonders what some real news might produce.
Dow 12,447.52 +159.42; NASDAQ 2,455.92 +47.71; S&P 500 1,435.04 +24.10; NYSE Composite 9,317.73 +159.46
It was as though somebody (Ben Bernanke) waved a magic wand over Wall Street and all the problems of the past 6 months were magically wiped away. Maybe it's the nation's penchant for selective short term memory loss, but it was just four weeks ago that the Dow lost more than 400 points, and less than 2 weeks ago that the sub-prime mortgage lending blowup began (and hasn't ended). Why, it was less than a week ago that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by more than double what the experts had been predicting.
Maybe there are a lot of suckers out there. Maybe the correction is really over after just a 6-8% decline on the major indices. Maybe after 52 months of a steadily rising bull market, a one month respite is all this market can handle.
Maybe I'm wrong, but there certainly seems to be a great deal of really, really, stupid money out there. Stupid isn't even the right word to describe today's trade. Insane, criminally insane, might be closer to the truth.
Advancers trounced declining issues by nearly a 5-1 margin. New highs outpaced new lows 380 to 71. That's a pair of numbers which would normally have me shouting "turnaround" but the drama of today's metoric rise is lost on me. I'll call the end of the correction when it actually ends, not when some monstrosity of market mockery says it's over.
Amid all the late afternoon hoopla over the Fed's indecision, nobody noticed (or cared) that oil was up sharply, as the April contract expired yesterday at $56.60. Today's new May futures contract has oil at $59.61, only a $3/barrel increase in one day. Yes, sir, there certainly is a load of stupid, ignorant, moronic money out there, and most of it is in the form of Mr. and Mrs. Average Joe American's retirement plans.
Good luck with that!
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Climbing the Worry Wall
US indices groped higher on Thursday, the 7th winning session of the last 17, dating back to the Dow's all-time closing high of 12,786.64 on February 20. And therein lies the story. Though the markets have not lately shown a preponderance of down days, the average is lower by more than 600 points in just over three weeks.
Today's slight gains were indicative of an unsure market.
Dow 12,159.68 +26.28; NASDAQ 2,378.70 +6.96; S&P 500 1,392.28 +5.11; NYSE Composite 9,005.25 +46.64
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for February increased by 1.3%, well beyond the market estimate of 0.5%. Food costs showed their largest monthly increase in more than three years. Core PPI rose 0.4 percent. The Labor Department's CPI will be released tomorrow. The reading raised more inflation concerns and speculation of a possible Fed rate increase. The FOMC of the Federal Reserve Board meets next week to decide on interest rates, though consensus opinion says the committee will keep the federal funds rate steady at 5.25% - the rate member banks pay on overnight loans from the Federal Reserve.
The FOMC last raised rates - to their current level - in June of 2006. In their five meetings since, they have made no change to the federal funds rate.
Despite the scary inflation news, investors bid up stocks, though not with great enthusiasm. With residential real estate now in a prolonged decline, capital inflows may be affected as middle to upper income investors express caution with other investments. The expected volatility tied to quadruple options expirations on Friday failed to materialize, seemingly having played itself out during Wednesday's wild ride.
Advancing issues outdid decliners by better than 2-1, and the measure of new highs to new lows flipped back to the positive, 154-88.
Crude oil continued to lose value, dipping 61 cents to $57.55. Gold and silver both notched gains; gold was up $4.60, silver added 25 cents.
Today's slight gains were indicative of an unsure market.
Dow 12,159.68 +26.28; NASDAQ 2,378.70 +6.96; S&P 500 1,392.28 +5.11; NYSE Composite 9,005.25 +46.64
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for February increased by 1.3%, well beyond the market estimate of 0.5%. Food costs showed their largest monthly increase in more than three years. Core PPI rose 0.4 percent. The Labor Department's CPI will be released tomorrow. The reading raised more inflation concerns and speculation of a possible Fed rate increase. The FOMC of the Federal Reserve Board meets next week to decide on interest rates, though consensus opinion says the committee will keep the federal funds rate steady at 5.25% - the rate member banks pay on overnight loans from the Federal Reserve.
The FOMC last raised rates - to their current level - in June of 2006. In their five meetings since, they have made no change to the federal funds rate.
Despite the scary inflation news, investors bid up stocks, though not with great enthusiasm. With residential real estate now in a prolonged decline, capital inflows may be affected as middle to upper income investors express caution with other investments. The expected volatility tied to quadruple options expirations on Friday failed to materialize, seemingly having played itself out during Wednesday's wild ride.
Advancing issues outdid decliners by better than 2-1, and the measure of new highs to new lows flipped back to the positive, 154-88.
Crude oil continued to lose value, dipping 61 cents to $57.55. Gold and silver both notched gains; gold was up $4.60, silver added 25 cents.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
2007 Predictions (part 1)
With 2006 winding down, everybody's out with predictions for 2007, so I thought I would follow the crowd for a change and throw down a few of my own observations before the clock runs out.
Since there are two trading days remaining, I'm going to cut my predictions into two parts, covering currency, interest rates and commodities today and the stock markets, economic trends and some political observations tomorrow.
Taking a somewhat more cynical view of markets as opposed to some of the more supply/demand theorists, I'm presaging my prophecies with a couple of caveats: 1. The Democratically-controlled Congress will restore a sense of fairness and balance to the country as a whole while putting some pressure on the administration for fiscal restraint; 2. Our lame duck president will remain stubbornly in opposition to public opinion on Iraq and the faux war on terror and face calls for resignation or face impeachment as early as Spring. (For more on my views on impeachment, see my political blog.)
Currencies: Stabilizing dollar
After years and years of dollar depreciation, the tide may finally begin to roll out. The demise of the Dollar vs. the Euro is vividly revealed in this Euro to US$ chart.
Since reaching parity (1$ = 1EUR) late in 2002, it's been a pretty steady path of appreciation for the Euro at the Dollar's expense though the trend has definitely slowed since the peak in December 2004. It was at that point that the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points to 2.25% and the fifth consecutive rate increase, with the first in June, 2004, when the rate was finally moved off the 1% "emergency" rate to 1.25.
Since then, the Fed raised rates for a total of 17 consecutive meetings, the last of which was June 2006, when the FOMC finished their upwards adjustment at 5.25%, where it stands today.
So, there is no correlation between US interest rates and the value of the dollar versus foreign currencies.
Talk of the death of the dollar has been strong lately, however, but wildly overstated. The abrupt change by Iran - to price their oil in Euros rather than dollars - and the flight of some Gulf nations to ease their foreign reserves and investment funds partially out of US Dollars likely has more to do with politics than money, though the two are closely affiliated.
If the US isn't getting the message that meddling in the Middle east has reached its limit, maybe moving some money away from US investments may get our attention... at least that's what it looks like from afar.
Since we're reaching a double bottom in the Euro-Dollar trade, I expect the dollar to bounce between 1.33 and 1.18 in 2007, with the main triggers being our international relations and how well the Congress reigns in spending.
Interest Rates: Little change
The Fed is now 4 meetings into stand pat mode, fixing the Fed funds rate at a very fair 5.25% and that's not likely to change dramatically. The first half of 2007 may see some slowing of the economy and calls to ease rates, but the Fed will not see a recession looming and will choose to err on the side of prudence, keeping rates the same at least through June.
The June meeting may be the most propitious time for the Fed to make a move as the economy will look like it's stalling out, but with inflation not likely to be much of a concern in a slowing environment, raising rates will be pretty much out of the equation as well.
It's going to be a boring year to be an economist as we move politically and economically back to the center and further away from the radicalism of the previous six years.
Commodities: Lower prices good for all
In the commodities field, lower oil prices are going to keep the economy on an even keel. Oil prices have been going south generally for the past six months and the new political climate is likely to foment more declines in crude and gasoline.
There's a glut of goods and raw materials in the US and to a lesser extent worldwide and distribution will be a key. China will not be able to continue expanding at their breakneck pace as the developed nations will experience slow growth. The overriding factors of globalization and reduced demand for imports to the US should keep prices for functional commodities - copper, silver, zinc, oil, natural gas, coal and timber - somewhat in check.
There will be opportunities for reasonable gains both on the short and long sides, but these occasions will be short-lived. The overall trend will be lower with gold bottoming out in the $550-575 range, silver backing up to $10.75/oz. and copper easing to a more reasonable 2.15 per pound.
Another warm winter, courtesy of global warming, will contribute to keep oil below $60/bbl. for much of the year. A fall below $50 is not out of the question and stabilization in the $44-47 range is a distinct possibility by Fall.
The continued slowdown in the US housing market will be the main factor driving all commodity prices lower.
Tomorrow: Stocks, trends and politics.
Since there are two trading days remaining, I'm going to cut my predictions into two parts, covering currency, interest rates and commodities today and the stock markets, economic trends and some political observations tomorrow.
Taking a somewhat more cynical view of markets as opposed to some of the more supply/demand theorists, I'm presaging my prophecies with a couple of caveats: 1. The Democratically-controlled Congress will restore a sense of fairness and balance to the country as a whole while putting some pressure on the administration for fiscal restraint; 2. Our lame duck president will remain stubbornly in opposition to public opinion on Iraq and the faux war on terror and face calls for resignation or face impeachment as early as Spring. (For more on my views on impeachment, see my political blog.)
Currencies: Stabilizing dollar
After years and years of dollar depreciation, the tide may finally begin to roll out. The demise of the Dollar vs. the Euro is vividly revealed in this Euro to US$ chart.
Since reaching parity (1$ = 1EUR) late in 2002, it's been a pretty steady path of appreciation for the Euro at the Dollar's expense though the trend has definitely slowed since the peak in December 2004. It was at that point that the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points to 2.25% and the fifth consecutive rate increase, with the first in June, 2004, when the rate was finally moved off the 1% "emergency" rate to 1.25.
Since then, the Fed raised rates for a total of 17 consecutive meetings, the last of which was June 2006, when the FOMC finished their upwards adjustment at 5.25%, where it stands today.
So, there is no correlation between US interest rates and the value of the dollar versus foreign currencies.
Talk of the death of the dollar has been strong lately, however, but wildly overstated. The abrupt change by Iran - to price their oil in Euros rather than dollars - and the flight of some Gulf nations to ease their foreign reserves and investment funds partially out of US Dollars likely has more to do with politics than money, though the two are closely affiliated.
If the US isn't getting the message that meddling in the Middle east has reached its limit, maybe moving some money away from US investments may get our attention... at least that's what it looks like from afar.
Since we're reaching a double bottom in the Euro-Dollar trade, I expect the dollar to bounce between 1.33 and 1.18 in 2007, with the main triggers being our international relations and how well the Congress reigns in spending.
Interest Rates: Little change
The Fed is now 4 meetings into stand pat mode, fixing the Fed funds rate at a very fair 5.25% and that's not likely to change dramatically. The first half of 2007 may see some slowing of the economy and calls to ease rates, but the Fed will not see a recession looming and will choose to err on the side of prudence, keeping rates the same at least through June.
The June meeting may be the most propitious time for the Fed to make a move as the economy will look like it's stalling out, but with inflation not likely to be much of a concern in a slowing environment, raising rates will be pretty much out of the equation as well.
It's going to be a boring year to be an economist as we move politically and economically back to the center and further away from the radicalism of the previous six years.
Commodities: Lower prices good for all
In the commodities field, lower oil prices are going to keep the economy on an even keel. Oil prices have been going south generally for the past six months and the new political climate is likely to foment more declines in crude and gasoline.
There's a glut of goods and raw materials in the US and to a lesser extent worldwide and distribution will be a key. China will not be able to continue expanding at their breakneck pace as the developed nations will experience slow growth. The overriding factors of globalization and reduced demand for imports to the US should keep prices for functional commodities - copper, silver, zinc, oil, natural gas, coal and timber - somewhat in check.
There will be opportunities for reasonable gains both on the short and long sides, but these occasions will be short-lived. The overall trend will be lower with gold bottoming out in the $550-575 range, silver backing up to $10.75/oz. and copper easing to a more reasonable 2.15 per pound.
Another warm winter, courtesy of global warming, will contribute to keep oil below $60/bbl. for much of the year. A fall below $50 is not out of the question and stabilization in the $44-47 range is a distinct possibility by Fall.
The continued slowdown in the US housing market will be the main factor driving all commodity prices lower.
Tomorrow: Stocks, trends and politics.
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