Debt Downgrade Fallout: Stocks Shattered, Gold Soars, Europe a Wasteland

At 9:00 pm Eastern time on Friday night, August 5, S&P officially released their downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+, prompting widespread panic and sharp rebukes from the White House, who claimed, in effect, that S&P had made what amounted to "math errors."

Over the weekend, much was made of the downgrade, as the Obama hit the airwaves with gusto, rebuking the call from the ratings agency. Fitch and Moody's had previously reaffirmed the US debt as AAA, the highest possible sovereign bond rating, but S&P would not back down, and the downgrade remained in effect.

What S&P reasoned was that the US government did not take the necessary steps - in its theatrical production of waiting until the last possible moment to pass a debt ceiling increase - to address the structural problems facing it. S&P rightly concluded that US debt levels were and continue to rise and discretionary spending levels have not been controlled. Therefore, they downgraded the nation's debt and threaten to do it a second time, sometime around November, if the 12-member congressional committee charged with dealing with long term debt does not come up with actionable, concrete, debt reduction proposals.

As markets opened on Monday, the effects of a global panic were evident, especially on the heels of a 10% decline in US indices over the past two weeks and Thursday's dramatic sell-off of over four per cent on major markets.

First, it was the Asian markets which tanked at their various openings and continued through the day to sell off anywhere from 1.5 to 4.0%. Next up was Europe, where the crisis over bailing out Italy and Spain have reached a point of no return. EU officials stressed that they would be in the market with the ECB, buying up italian and Spanish debt, but that did little to change the outlook of investors, which had turned sour over the past fortnight.

Appetite for risk was at a low, as European markets suffered steep losses. England's FTSE was the best of the lot, down only 2.62%. France's CAC-40 took a 4.68% loss and Germany's DAX shed 5.02%. Other Euro-zone markets fell between 3.76 and 6.11%.

By the time US markets were to open, index futures had been hammered down to presage an inauspicious opening. Within minutes of the bell, the Dow was down more than 200 points, the S&P had taken a 25-point hit and the NASDAQ fell more than 70 points, though those declines were nothing compared to the carnage that lay ahead.

By the end of the day, after a minor rally in the first 15 minutes of the final hour, stocks were trading at or near their lows, with the Dow Jones Industrials surrendering the 6th-worst performance in its history. While the Dow suffered a 5.5% decline on the day, the other indices were actually much worse, with the NYSE Composite topping them all, coming home with a 7.05% loss.

It wasn't just the debt downgrade that spurred the sell-off. Conditions in Europe have worsened significantly over the past few months, to the point that European Union officials are without reasonable solutions to the debt contagion spreading across the region. While the ECB has managed to prop up smaller countries like Greece, Portugal and Ireland, Italy especially poses a much larger concern.

All the European leaders could muster on Monday was a terse statement which offered no concrete proposals but plenty of assurances, which was be roundly written off by markets. To wit:

We are committed to taking coordinated action where needed, to ensuring liquidity, and to supporting financial market functioning, financial stability and economic growth

That was the extent of the communique from the magnificent seven of the United States, Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.

The irony is that one of them, Italy, has been the source of the most recent anguish.

Essentially, the funds available to the ECB fall short of meeting the debt purchases needed to save Italy and Spain. Europe will have to engage in quantitative easing, as was the case in the United States over the past two years, to stave off defaults and the threat of a cascading crisis which would envelop all of Europe and likely doom the 11-year-old Euro currency.

If the EU decides upon cheapening the currency - which it almost certainly will do - theknock-on effect will be to sink the Euro, probably close to parity with the US Dollar. As the dollar would grow in strength, commodities, particularly oil and gas for auto use, would plummet, a boon to US drivers and to the general economy. Costs of imports would also decline, on a relative basis, giving American consumers more purchasing power.

Within the same scenario, however, are pitfalls for the global manufacturers and companies that populate the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow. A stronger US Dollar would make them less competitive in foreign markets, shrinking margins and thus, profits. Thus, the great selling rush today was more of a statement on the global condition rather than that of the debt downgrade, which, when all is said and done, won't amount to a hill of beans. In fact, treasuries were up sharply today, as yields fell to their lowest levels in over a year.

The benchmark 10-year note fell 25 basis points in just one day, from 2.56% on Friday to 2.31% on Monday. The 30-year bond fell 19 basis points, to 3.65% as the yield curve continues to flatten. Money is going out of stocks and into bonds, and whether they're AAA or AA+ doesn't matter to those seeking a safe haven. The ridiculously low yields offered are a moot point. As one trader put it, "Investors aren't looking at making money; they're more concerned with getting their money back."

And, therein, the next crisis, in bonds, especially if the US government doesn't get its house in order soon. Higher rates and another downgrade could trigger a default of impossible proportions as the US would be unable to roll over its debt and fund itself without incurring higher borrowing costs. Ditto for Europe. Rising interest rates signals the end game for fiat currencies globally and back to some form of honest money, most likely on a gold standard.

The market events of the past few days, in which the major indices lost more than 10% are not the end of the crisis, but rather the beginning of the end of a great generational bear market that began in 2007 and will eviscerate all risk assets until nobody wants to hold anything any more.

Markets have entered the final stages of the third leg down. QE 1 and 2 staved off the collapse, but there will be no bailouts this time around. It's every man, woman, child and company for itself. There will be some winners, but mostly there will be losers, anguish, agony and the disappearance of great hordes of wealth.

Dow 10,809.85, -634.76 (5.55%)
NASDAQ 2,357.69, -174.72 (6.90%)
S&P 500 1,119.46, -79.92 (6.66%)
NYSE Composite 6,895.97, -523.10 (7.05%)

The internals were equally as stunning as the headline numbers. Declining issues decimated advancers, 6553-375, a ratio of 17.5:1. It was truly one of the deepest, broadest declines in stock market history. On the NASDAQ, there were four (4) new highs next to 725 new lows. The NYSE had just three (3) new highs, but 1292 stocks making new 52-week lows. The combined total of seven (7) new highs and 2017 new lows rivals or exceeds the figures presented during the fallout of 2008-2009.

Volume was at the highest levels of the year, exceeding that of last Thursday, which was then the high volume day of the year. Investors aren't just scared, they are trampling each other running through the exits at breakneck speed.

NASDAQ Volume 4,002,857,250
NYSE Volume 11,046,384,000

Crude oil futures were pounded again, as the front-month contract on WTI crude fell $5.57, to $81.31. Gas prices will soon fall below $3.50 - and possibly below $3.00 - a gallon as current supplies are depleted and replaced by less expensive distillates. According to AAA, the average price of gas in the US is now $3.66 per gallon, but the deep declines have not yet been factored into the equation. That will happen over the next two to three weeks.

Gold was the big winner of the day, soaring $61.30, to $1,713.20, another all-time record price as investors, companies, nations, central banks and housewives scrambled to find reliable assets. Silver, still constrained by high margin requirements, gained $1.17, to $39.38. Silver is almost certainly the most under-appreciated asset in the world, though that will soon change. As the crisis escalates and governments make more and more bad moves, the precious metals will skyrocket to unforeseen heights.

The banking sector took it on the chin, but none more than Bank of America (BAC) which is on the verge of a well-deserved bankruptcy. shares of the nation's largest banks fell 20% on the day, losing 1.66, to close at 6.51. Just a few weeks ago, BofA was trading at a price nearly double that. The unfolding mortgage crisis, brought about by Bank of America's 2008 purchase of Countrywide, has become a fatal blow to the once proud institution.

David Tepper's Appaloosa Management Fund has reportedly sold its stake in Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC), while significantly trimming Citigroup (C) from the portfolio.

Adding to the irony, AIG has sued Bank of America for $10 billion, citing "massive fraud" in its representations of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

However, Citigroup analyst Keith Horowitz takes the booby prize for reiterating a "buy" rating on Bank of America shares this morning. Timing is not one of Mr. Horowitz's strong points, it would appear.

On top of all this, the FOMC of the Federal Reserve will issue a policy statement Tuesday at 2:00 pm EDT, followed by a news conference from Chairman Ben Bernanke. That alone should equate to another 300-point decline in the Dow.

For those with a morbid curiosity, check out the slideshow of the 10 worst days on the Dow, already outdated, as August 8, 2011, will go down in the history books as the 6th worst day for the blue chip index of all time.

Henry Blodgett and Aaron Task have a nice summation of the situation in the video below:

Massive Disconnect in Markets

Apologies for the tardiness of this posting. At press time, Blogger - the system we love and use for posting this blog - was down for unexpected maintenance, at 3:30 pm EDT, on Thursday, May 12. We also note that Blogger lost our post from May 11, 2011, and, since it was created completely upon their system, cannot say with any level of assuredness whether or not it will be restored. At this point, it is permanently gone. Our regular post for Friday, May 13, will (God and Blogger willing) be posted shortly after close of trading, about 4:45 pm EDT.

More of the same from the people who brought you "Financial Suicide 101" (2008) and "How to Jack Economies Worldwide" (2009-11), the genii of Wall Street and their willing government henchmen today took a look at unmistakenly miserable data from fresh unemployment claims filings (434,000) and turned a market that was selling off into another miracle rally.

On top of that April PPI came in at 0.8%, highly inflationary and retail sales disappointed, registering a gain of 0.5% when the estimate was for 0.6%, revised lower from 0.7%. Truthfully, most of the 1/2 per cent of retail gains were due to nothing more than higher prices. There is no growth in the US economy and hasn't been for a while.

The games and maneuvers of these criminal elite which operate on Wall Street are truly breath-taking and never ending. When the Dow was down 90 points and the NASDAQ off 27, shortly after the opening bell, these guileless bastards just began pumping fresh POMO money into the dead carcass that is the US stock market, as though the economy were performing just dandily and those new jobless claims were merely a tick to be brushed aside with a swat of the hand.

What we have here is a massive disconnect which has prevailed since well before the financial catastrophe of 2008 between Wall Street and the rest of the world. In reality, the world would have been a far better place had Osoma bin Laden done a better job and eradicated more of the sniveling, greedy, sociopathic slime that has infested our markets and destroyed not only the US economy, but that of Europe and a handful of other nations.

The egregious crimes committed before during and after the sub-prime meltdown that exploded into a full blown $700 billion heist known as TARP still have not been addressed, no one has answered for this disaster, and to this day, banks such as Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Wells-Fargo have continued to conceal their losses behind corrupt, dubious accounting rules, off-balance sheet transactions and trillions of Fed-pumped dollars to boost their bottom lines and hike up momentum stocks to unbelievable, unsustainable valuations.

The biggest banks still cannot lend, cannot process foreclosures without falsifying documents and are routinely charging credit-worthy customers usury rates on credit cards. Even still, they whine and complain after having been bailed out by the government (read: taxpayers) about every little detail that might make their miserable existence even the tiniest bit more fair toward consumers.

Make no doubt about it. These cretins who sit in the executive suites atop the largest financial institutions in the world are still in the process of raping and pillaging one "investor", one "consumer" at a time. If they had it their way, they'd just have their flunkies in congress pass new laws that mandate that all Americans submit all of their money to them, while in many ways, they already have, through control of investment trusts, pension and retirement funds, municipal bonds and a variety of other means - like JP Morgan Chase's easy money scam for administering the SNAP (food stamp) program nationwide.

Today's market action and many other days before it - and surely more to come - is just another example of how ludicrous is their game of "chicken" with markets that are essentially dead and have been for nearly three years. If there was a way to remove the parasitical banks, insurance companies, and other so-called "facilitators" from the scene, our markets would once again return to health and there is a small chance that we might even survive the long-term, generational damage they have bestowed on us and citizens across the globe.

Continual goosing of the stock markets with funny money from the Fed will no doubt leave a legacy of destruction in its aftermath. Because the American economy is so tightly wound around the major financial institutions, extrication from the iron fist of Wall Street and Washington is going to be a painful and unsteady process, but it begins with Americans who have stopped believing and are getting out of stocks, 401k plans, college funds, retirement funds, and all manner of paper investments. Sadly, there is fresh money from new sheep to be sheared, so the game continues and we sink, as a society and as a nation, further and further down the past to insolvency, destitution and eventual destruction of all the principles, laws and common decency that made us a great nation.

America is either already dead or dying a slow, agonizing death. Indictments and criminal prosecutions should have happened two or three years ago, but they can still happen, if people demand that they do.

Write to your congressman or woman. Take your money out of the big, national banks. Liquidate your IRAs, 401ks and other investment vehicles. Leave them for dead, because, in reality, they already are.

Dow 12,695.92, +65.89 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 2,863.04, +17.98 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,348.65, +6.57 (0.49%)
NYSE Composite 8,456.18, +28.09 (0.33%)

Advancing issues swamped decliners, 4199-2408. NASDAQ new highs: 113; new lows: 55. NYSE new highs: 172; new lows: 36. Make note that new lows have been rising or steady in recent weeks. There are fewer than 30 trading days remaining before the planned end of QE2 and the rats are jumping off the stock market ship. Volume was higher today as it takes more stock trades to save a market from imminent collapse.

NASDAQ Volume 2,233,589,000
NYSE Volume 4,241,912,500

Commodities were whipsawed once again. Crude oil futures finished up 78 cents, at $98.97, but not before some uncertainty in the morning which had futures down 10 cents.

Gold finished up $6.00, at $1506.90 and silver lost 45 cents, to $34.62, but was down briefly below $33 per ounce.

Thankfully, tomorrow ends another week, and the University of Michigan presents its monthly consumer sentiment survey, plus April CPI. It is Friday the 13th, however, so expect more than the usual wild swings, lies and obfuscation.

Jobless Claims Jump, 1st Q GDP Anemic, Stocks Surge?

We've been officially in a financial twilight zone since about the middle of 2007. It was unofficial until the wheels of George W. Bush's second term as president began to fall off and the evils of crony capitalism began to appear. We all know what happened after that, but today's economic data and stock market reaction defies explanation of any rational kind except that the markets are completely out of whack, fed by the Fed's ZIRP and POMO.

Initial jobless claims printed this morning at 429,000, when the estimate was for 390,000. A miss of 39,000, especially when the economy is supposed to be improving, is pretty wide of the target and normally would cause a sell-off in stocks, since it signals trouble ahead. The last three reports on jobless claims all have come in over the "official" estimates, adding to the worry.

At the same time, the government released the first estimate of first quarter GDP, which has been revised downward over the past three months from 4 1/2% growth, to 3 1/2, to 3, and finally to 2%.

It didn't even make that. Estimated GDP for the first quarter was 1.8%, this on the heels of a 4th quarter 2010 final estimate of 3.1%. Blended, that puts annualized GDP at about 2.5%, which, in any sensible world, is under-achieving in a big way.

Normally, coming out of a recession, the economy grows at a 5% or higher clip for a few quarters and the Fed has to then apply the brakes by increasing the federal funds rate. However, in our current quagmire economy, we're not even hitting 3% annualized and interest rates are as low as they can be, effectively ZERO. This is truly distressing news, and anyone who thinks we're not headed right back into another recession (some believe the first one never actually ended), might be concerned or even downright perturbed.

Let's set the record straight. When a person's unemployment benefits run out - be they after 26 weeks, 60 weeks or the current standard for millions, 99 weeks, they no longer count in the BLS data, so the non-farms payroll report for April, which will be released a week from tomorrow, really does not count all the unemployed when they say the unemployment rate is 8.8% or whatever number they feel is appropriate.

Currently, REAL unemployment, measuring all the current UI recipients, plus those who have exhausted their benefits and are still without a job, is around 16-17%, maybe higher, and it's been at that level for the better part of three years.

Next, GDP growth has completely stalled out (the cynic in me wants to believe this is so we'll get a Republican president in 2012) and may turn negative, and that's will somewhere between $12 and $20 TRILLION in various forms of stimulus. Keep in mind, whenever a politician projects government budgets over any time frame longer than three years, that GDP growth is likely to be 3% or lower for the foreseeable future.

In other words, we are royally screwed and I'm not talking about tomorrow's wedding night of Prince William the Tragic.

The masters of the universe on Wall Street, however, apparently don't see any issues here, as they ramped up stocks after a slightly-declining opening 20 minutes.

Twilight Zone, folks. Rod Serling and the creepy music and all that.

Dow 12,763.31, +72.35 (0.57%)
NASDAQ 2,872.53, +2.65 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,360.48, +4.82 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,639.73, +30.45 (0.35%)

Gainers outnumbered losers, 3915-2644. 171 new highs and 28 new lows was the order of the day on the NASDAQ. Over on the NYSE, there were 355 new highs and 13 new lows. Volume, oh, why bother?

NASDAQ Volume 1,993,865,125.00
NYSE Volume 4,519,197,000

Crude oil futures were up on 10 cents today, closing at $112.86 on the NYMEX. As of %;40 PM EDT, spot gold was bid up $8.50, at $1535.80, another new record. Silver was up 48 cents, to $48.48, though it traded more than a dollar higher earlier in the day.

The $50 mark for silver may take some time to finally break through, but when it does, it will be an all-time high, and will likely tack on about another $6-8 in short order. Breaking through an all-time high, especially when the forces of central bankers and JP Morgan are shorting it with everything at their disposal will be a seminal event and likely signal the resumption of the gathering second great depression, of which we are already two-and-a-half years into.

When silver breaks loose, all manner of nastiness will be released onto the global economy. Markets are already strained to their limits, but when central banks and large money center banks see their currency finally debased and routed by "poor man's gold" (silver), market disruptions will become continuous events and price discovery mechanisms priced in Dollars, Euros or Yen will be completely lost, forever shattered.

The $50 mark on silver is coming, and soon, so best be prepared for all manner of craziness.

BTW: the Dollar Index fell to 73.118, and was as low as 72.87 today. The dollar index is quickly reaching for the lows of Spring 2008, around 71.58, and it's likely that level will be breached about the same time silver rockets ahead and gas prices in the US exceed $4.00 per gallon nationally. We're almost there!

It's Not as Good as They're Saying; Lows-Highs Flip

To anyone who follows capital markets and the world of high finance closely, the material deficiencies in the US and global "growth" stories are glaring and have been for many months. While the financial press - CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg - and the spokespeople for the various central governments around the world continue to feed the public the "recovery" fable, the facts, now beginning to see the light of day, contend that the global economy is still, two-and-a-half years after the grand cascading crash of 2008, in precarious straits.

Five separate stories sealed the fate for global markets today, beginning with China's announcement late Wednesday night (in America) that their trade balance was negative for the month of February.

About the same time, RealtyTrac delivered news that foreclosures had come to nearly a halt in the United States, with their numbers for February dropping 14 percent from the previous month and a 27 percent decrease from February 2010. Normally, that would be good news, but in the current environment of illegal and unethical actions by large, foreclosing banks, it meant that the mess that began in October, 2010 with the robo-signing scandal, was keeping banks from courthouses and clogging up the real estate market in a worsening manner.

Prior to the market opening, two more news items spooked the investment community. First, Moody's downgraded Spain's debt (about time for that!) to Aa2 and then, at 8:30 am on the East coast, the double whammy of new unemployment claims (397,000) and the US trade deficit, which expanded to -$46.3 billion in January.

Then, in mid-afternoon, as if the market had not received enough bad news, a story out of Saudi Arabia said that protesters had been fired upon by government troops.

That final bit of news sent the major indices - which had recovered somewhat off the day's lows - down once more, and stocks finished the session breaking into new depths.

The Dow and S&P broke through various levels of support, with the Dow finishing under the 12,000 mark for the first time in two months and the S&P crashing through it's 55-DMA. The NASDAQ and NYSE Composite each suffered similar pain.

It's becoming plain and clear to everybody living in the real world - not the fantasy land of fund managers, politicians and central bankers - that things are not going so well. Housing is an absolute catastrophe, global trade is grinding down due to higher imput costs and soaring energy prices, Europe is a full-blown basket case on the brink of dissolving, and US stocks are so wickedly overvalued that the path of least resistance is to sell them all, hurriedly, on the first sign of negative news, and there certainly was plenty of that to go around today.

Dow 11,984.61, -228.48 (1.87%)
NASDAQ 2,701.02, -50.70 (1.84%)
S&P 500 1,295.11, -24.91 (1.89%)
NYSE Composite 8,200.07, -179.37 (2.14%)

Declining issues led advancers, 5501-1072, a ratio of better than 5:1. New highs on the NASDAQ were just 33, overtaken by 68 new lows. On the NYSE, just 27 new highs and 31 new lows. This is a critical juncture for the markets, because if the number of new lows remain higher than new highs on a daily basis for long, say, six to eight trading days, it would confirm a hard change of direction, which has been in the cards since the double-engulfing session last Tuesday.

Volume was elevated as is the usual case when sellers outnumber buyers.

NASDAQ Volume 2,374,073,000
NYSE Volume 5,320,324,500

Commodities also took it on the chin, though in not such a dramatic fashion as stocks. Crude oil futures on the NYMEX fell $1.68, to $102.70, due to massive oversupply in the US of unrefined crude. Gold slipped $17.10, but remained below the psychologically-important $1400 level, ending the day at $1,412.50. Silver also was sold off, losing $98 cents, to finish at $35.07, though it should be noted that on days of hard reversals, a lot of precious metals are liquidated by speculators to cover margin calls.

A final note should not be ignored. Bill Gross' PIMCO, the world's largest fixed income family of funds, has slashed its holdings of Treasuries to ZERO. This news, first reported by the avant garde financial blog, zerohedge.com, holds unknown, but potentially damaging conditions. Gross and PIMCO have more or less registered a vote of "no confidence" on the policies of the US government and the Federal Reserve Corporation.

With stocks hammered down repeatedly over the past two weeks, the highs of February 18 look like specs on the horizon and the truth about the real conditions in the global and US markets is finally coming out. The cataclysm begun by the Wall Street banks in 2003-2006 and accelerated by then-Treasury Secretary's $700 billion holdup of the US mint in October, 2008, has many more acts still to be played out.

The rush for the exits began a week ago and the passageway out is beginning to get quite crowded.

Euro Stress Tests a Joke and Wall St. Loves Them

Apparently, according to the central bankers of the world, and especially those in the US and Europe, banks are well enough capitalized to easily survive any kind of future monetary event.

That was the official word from Europe, where it was announced today that only seven of 91 banks in the region failed the European Union's stress tests. The other 84, for the most part, are not only well-capitalized, but strong, vibrant and growing.

After much hand-wringing and posturing over the past four months and with the goading and encouragement of not only Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (who, incidentally is currently on a visit to Europe), Europe followed the lead set down by its American counterparts in 2009 and conducted their own rather flimsy and opaque tests to determine how the largest banks in the region might fare under certain - supposedly bad - economic conditions.

The tests, as in America, revealed very little about banking in the Eurozone. Except for giving European leaders and banking executives a little more breathing room by taking media focus off of them, the stress tests were designed wholly to persuade the general population that all is well in the world of global finances, which begs the question, "why all the fuss in the first place?"

In the broadest, most general terms, what the conduct of the combined central banks of the nations of Europe and the US, plus the mega-banking operations scattered around those countries shows is that the entire financial calamities of the past two years were either made wholly of flimsy cloth or that the economies of many of these nations, and the USA, are in perilous conditions.

Choose whichever poison suits you best, but keeping the banking system and sovereign debt structures at status quo is probably grand for bankers - for now - and pretty much meaningless - for now - for the general populations. Later on, within months, most likely, the truth shall be exposed for all to see, that the nations and their central banks have been painted into a liquidity corner from which many cannot escape without severe austerity measures or default on scads and scads of debt.

With an entire global structure built upon fiat money with nothing to back it except a nation's good word, the eventuality of final collapse is assured, the only remaining question being a matter of timing. The politicians, bankers and associated ruling class participants will keep the charade going for as long as they can. In the meantime, in towns and cities and states across America and across Europe, the dismantling of the middle class will continue apace. Credit cannot and will not be extended to anyone with less-than perfect credit histories and sufficient collateral. Major corporations will continue to flourish at the expense of smaller rivals. Stocks will head up, and then down, and then repeat the pattern. Slowly, almost imperceptibly, the structure of governance and the prosperity of individuals will fall prey to the ravenous appetites of massive governments and business structures working hand-in-hand.

All that one can hope for under these conditions is for a continuance of the deflationary spiral which has been fought at every chance by the central bankers, though mostly in vain. Some of the largest economies in the world continue to limp along with interest rates at or near zero and credit choked off to the general public. Obfuscation and new regulations will only serve to exacerbate the situation until the populations finally give up or rise up.

In Europe, surrender is not so easily assumed. In the United States, it is almost certain, except for a very small percentage who will fly under the radar of the government, skirting the laws and rules, until they too are caught in the widening liquidity trap.

It's not a pretty picture going forward and it may take years to fully play out, but the absolute scurrilous nature of Europe's attempt to mollify the public is handwriting on the wall, writ small, but with larger implications.

As for Wall Street's role in the continuing dance of fools, stocks waited patiently on Friday, hugging the unchanged mark until after the stress test results were released. Once assured there would be no serious blow-back, the major indices took off on a tear toward and beyond their 200-day moving averages, as presaged right here on these pages in yesterday's post.

After the results were announced, traders took a few breaths, some supposedly went out onto their terraces for a smoke, and when they resumed trading, about 12:45, proceeded to take stocks higher in a hurry, pushing the Dow Jones Industrials up more than 100 points in the nest 45 minutes. The die already cast, the trades were executed.

All closed higher, and especially important, the S&P 500 finished the week above the 1100 mark, yet another sign that there's absolutely nothing to be concerned about. Your jobs are safe, your pensions in good hands, with the government and the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street continuing to monitor the health of your and your children's portfolios.

If it wasn't for all of this being so neatly wrapped up on a glorious summer Friday afternoon, one might presume that it was all preordained, completely organized right down to the final neat detail.

Dow 10,424.62, +102.32 (0.99%)
NASDAQ 2,269.47, +23.58 (1.05%)
S&P 500 1,102.66, +8.99 (0.82%)
NYSE Composite 6,965.11, +63.20 (0.92%)

Advancing issues led decliners, as expected, by a healthy margin, 4992-1425. New highs exceeded new lows, 298-80. Volume was at almost the exact same level as that of the previous two sessions; not surprising, since these days it's just the same people moving the same stocks back and forth, to and fro.

NASDAQ Volume 2,263,999,250
NYSE Volume 5,161,690,500

Commodities markets were a bit more rational, with oil closing down 22 cents, at $78.98; gold losing $7.80, to $1,187.70; and silver dipping two cents, to $18.10.

With the indices all closing above their 200-day MAs, one might assume that the bulls are off and running once again, but I purport that it is only a temporary condition, based entirely on strong earnings reports (notwithstanding everything else, a very positive sign, but wholly in contraction with economic reality) which will come to a sudden end next week. This looks every bit like a temporary summer rally, which end as quickly as they begin.

Churn, Churn, Churn: Stocks Turning to Mush

Possibly, you may have noticed a pattern developing over the past week or so.

That pattern has the unmistakable earmarks of a major downturn for equities, with all of the major indices falling below their 50-day moving averages, and, as of today, staying below them. Unlike yesterday's miraculous midday turnabout, the trading pattern on Tuesday was emblematic of typical bear market sell-offs, with stocks gaining in the morning, but, without conviction, being sold off soundly into the closing bell.

Rationale for the sustained selling might be one of many. Maybe it was the -0.1% April PPI reading (note to the uninitiated: negative PPI is usually a sound indicator of outright DEFLATION, the one word the Federal Reserve and central bankers worldwide dread). Possibly, some sellers were spooked by the dismally-low number of building permits issued nationwide: 606,000 in April, after 685,000 in March.

Neither of those seemed to weigh on markets at the opening, as both figures were released at 8:30 am, prior to the famous ringing of the bell. So, when Meredith Whitney, who has been elevated to stock goddess status after her correct calls on the 2008 financial collapse, took aim at both the Washington political crowd pondering financial regulation and the banking sector, a cadre of investors may have been taking notice.

Not only was her editorial in the Wall Street Journal a warning shot to current reform efforts and the debased credit climate, but it was after her appearance on CNBC (see below) that stocks really began to extend their slide. Whitney's advice was to avoid financial stocks "at all costs," which must have sounded an alarm, because all the major bank stocks took hits on Tuesday.

Bank of America (BAC) was off 2.45%; Goldman Sachs (GS) fell by more than 5 points, a 3.70% decline; Citigroup (C) finished the session at 3.73, its lowest close since March 8th, a decline of 3.37% on the day.

Dow 10,510.95, -114.88 (1.08%)
NASDAQ 2,317.26, -36.97 (1.57%)
S&P 500 1,120.80, -16.14 (1.42%)
NYSE Composite 6,959.21, -104.62 (1.48%

As expected, declining issues exceeded advancers by a wide margin, 4859-1705, though new highs managed to stay atop new lows for at least one more day, 166-100. Volume was on the low side, though it should pick up as the week progresses toward options expiration.

NYSE Volume 6,716,525,500.00
NASDAQ Volume 2,279,330,000.00

Crude oil, after being up nearly $2.00 in early trading, slipped to its first close below the $70 mark in 2010. Oil sold off another 67 cents, to $69.41. Keeping with the deflationary tone of the day, gold fell grandly, off $13.40, to $1,214.30. Silver managed to buck the trend, but only by throwing in 2 cents to its price per ounce, trading at $18.86.

The current conditions are ripe for a continuation of the current selloff or a radical race lower, a circumstance which could arise should the major averages fail on their tests of the 200-day moving averages. Dropping below those levels, which are not far off, could incite an all-out rout in equities as the economy still appears to be on shaky footing and companies may have trouble meeting last year's earnings results heading into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters. While the upcoming spate of earnings reports in July may not be very challenging, the October and January 2011 results will be difficult, as the comparisons are to quarters in which companies had cut staff and expenses to raw bone and most cannot afford to operate in that manner for extended periods of time. The latter half of 2010 appears to be setting up as a very challenging period for the general economy and stocks overall.