Our trading strategy into a long hold 0.7900, Target: 0.8060, Stop-Loss: 0.7900 (0.7850 was the original)
AUD / USD is able to phase returns expected after finding buying interest above yesterday's low at 0.7861 (today's low 0.7875) as expected, maintaining our position that the Aussie is to go nowhere but in a wide range 0.7829 to 0.8265 range for now and head bias consolidation will see another rise to 0.8068, above, can bring more bounce to 0 .. 8153rd
Therefore, we hold our long position into harmony with 0.7900 now increased to break even and to protect profits. On the downside, below 0.7861 may risk another attempt at 0.7829 support, however, only firm break will bring stronger violation of 0.7703/48 support area.
This consolidation in the variable range of 0.7829 to 0.8265 set to continue in June to break the wrong place to be confirmed later wave rally from 0.6248 3 (February 2, 2009) once again continue and extend gain to 0 , 8292 (1.618 times the Fibonacci projection of 0.6007 to 0.7270 measured from 0.6248) and possibly to 0.8383 (50% Fibonacci retracement from 0.9851 to 0.6007 in).
To re-cap of corrective fall from last year's high of 0.9851 (15 July 2008), fast and quick selloff was primarily due to derivative trading and therefore, we are treating as a simple ABC correction type of consolidation with A: 0 , 7800 (September 17, 2008), B: 0,8520 (September 22, 2008) and complete wave C 0.6007 (27 October 2008). The rally from there to 0.7270 (January 7, 2009) is provisionally designated as 1 wave, the withdrawal of 0.6248 (February 2, 2009) are seen as wave 2 and after the event is labeled as wave 3 and formed a temporary top today at 0.8265, above would extend to 0.8292 (1.618 times the Fibonacci projection of 0.6007 to 0.7270 measured from 0.6248) and possibly to 0.8383 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9851 - 0.6007).
Showing posts with label Forex Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Analysis. Show all posts
Thursday, July 07, 2011
Ichimoku cloud area and withdrew from 0.8066
Saint Tenkan-level: 0.7970
Saint Kijun-level: 0.8046
Ichimoku cloud top: 0.8027
Ichimoku cloud bottom: .8027
Our trading strategy: Selling 0.7970, Target: 0.7870, Stop: 0.8020
Although the Australian dollar rebounded sharply from 0.7858 to 0.8066 earlier, a couple managed to stay above the Ichimoku cloud area and withdrew from 0.8066, indicating a decline of 0.8238 (where the shooting star was formed) can continue along the near future sideways trading. Thus, a break below 0.7858 support is needed to confirm this view, then the Aussie will head south to 0.7828. Looking ahead, if this support in the 0.7828 is broken, it will confirm the double top formation of .8265 to .8238, then the last major correction the increase will be held at 0.7750/60, otherwise, the gyration 0.7828 to 0.8265 number will continue.
Therefore, while we prefer to sell the Aussie charge, you must book profits in such descend. The head, if the price rises above the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.8027), this will bring more bounce to 0.8066 resistance and if the Aussie rises through this resistance, it would increase the chance of a triangle formation of 0.8265, then a stronger recovery of 0.8140/50 will follow.
Saint Kijun-level: 0.8046
Ichimoku cloud top: 0.8027
Ichimoku cloud bottom: .8027
Our trading strategy: Selling 0.7970, Target: 0.7870, Stop: 0.8020
Although the Australian dollar rebounded sharply from 0.7858 to 0.8066 earlier, a couple managed to stay above the Ichimoku cloud area and withdrew from 0.8066, indicating a decline of 0.8238 (where the shooting star was formed) can continue along the near future sideways trading. Thus, a break below 0.7858 support is needed to confirm this view, then the Aussie will head south to 0.7828. Looking ahead, if this support in the 0.7828 is broken, it will confirm the double top formation of .8265 to .8238, then the last major correction the increase will be held at 0.7750/60, otherwise, the gyration 0.7828 to 0.8265 number will continue.
Therefore, while we prefer to sell the Aussie charge, you must book profits in such descend. The head, if the price rises above the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.8027), this will bring more bounce to 0.8066 resistance and if the Aussie rises through this resistance, it would increase the chance of a triangle formation of 0.8265, then a stronger recovery of 0.8140/50 will follow.
Label:
Forex Analysis
AUD forming a triangle of 0.8265
Despite the decline marginally lower by 0.7850, the Australian dollar found decent demand above 0.7828 support again and staged a strong growth of Aussie there and although we went down after a short 0.7970, the price has just begun to rebound again from 0.7910 (just below the Tenkan-Sen), suggesting the cost is likely to be tested Kijun-Sen (now at 0.8009) and then to the bottom of Ichimoku cloud (currently 0.8043), and even test 0.8066 resistance. If the price rises above the 0.8066 resistance, will increase the possibility of forming a triangle of 0.8265, then a stronger recovery of 0.8140/50 will follow.
Therefore, we are exiting our short position, and will probably require you to turn long the Aussie when we see prices slip back to 0.7940/50 0.7900/10 level as you continue to limit the downside the pair is.
On the downside, if only in support of 0.7828 is broken, it will confirm the double top formation of 0.8265 to 0.8238, the major correction in the last entire increase will be held at 0.7750/60 otherwise gyration 0.7828 to 0.8265 in the number will continue.
Therefore, we are exiting our short position, and will probably require you to turn long the Aussie when we see prices slip back to 0.7940/50 0.7900/10 level as you continue to limit the downside the pair is.
On the downside, if only in support of 0.7828 is broken, it will confirm the double top formation of 0.8265 to 0.8238, the major correction in the last entire increase will be held at 0.7750/60 otherwise gyration 0.7828 to 0.8265 in the number will continue.
Label:
Forex Analysis
EURJPY corrective upmove from a record low
The single currency fell sharply to 132.37 (Wednesday's low), after the violation of 135.70 (former support, now resistance), then traded side. While 135.70 holds, another attempt on the downside is still likely, however, as the decline of 139.26 peak is seen as the correction, the price will be held over the 131.47/70 support area and returns.
Therefore, we will try to trade the range and buy EUR / JPY at 132.50 or 135.30 sell for 150 points with 50 points stop. The head, breaking the previous designated 135.70 support (now resistance) will confirm the corrective decline from 139.26 is over the top and bring the continuation of the wave V 1 for another attempt at resistance later this month.
To re-cap of corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93 (October 18, 2000), and from there the wave is divided into: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (June 1, 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (November 10, 2003) and 5 completed a record high of 169.97 (July 21, 2008). The short but sharp selloff to 112.08 is seen as ABC x ABC type correction in the B wave. following a rally of 112.08 showed impulsive structure, therefore, we labeled wave 1 re. from 139.29 selloff seen as a downswing to retrace an increase of 126.99 (18 May) and only breach of 131.47/70 support area will confirm the wave of 1 V is over and bring a wave 2 correction 129.70 and perhaps to 126.99 (May 18, 2009), however, 124.38 support should remain intact.
Therefore, we will try to trade the range and buy EUR / JPY at 132.50 or 135.30 sell for 150 points with 50 points stop. The head, breaking the previous designated 135.70 support (now resistance) will confirm the corrective decline from 139.26 is over the top and bring the continuation of the wave V 1 for another attempt at resistance later this month.
To re-cap of corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93 (October 18, 2000), and from there the wave is divided into: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (June 1, 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (November 10, 2003) and 5 completed a record high of 169.97 (July 21, 2008). The short but sharp selloff to 112.08 is seen as ABC x ABC type correction in the B wave. following a rally of 112.08 showed impulsive structure, therefore, we labeled wave 1 re. from 139.29 selloff seen as a downswing to retrace an increase of 126.99 (18 May) and only breach of 131.47/70 support area will confirm the wave of 1 V is over and bring a wave 2 correction 129.70 and perhaps to 126.99 (May 18, 2009), however, 124.38 support should remain intact.
Label:
Forex Analysis
Australian dollar continue to find good buying
Australian dollar continue to find good buying interest at 0.7910 and just jumped sharply in New York morning, the move signals a fall from 0.8238 .7850 finished and quite likely to see a move to Aussie Ichimoku cloud area, but break on top of Ichimoku cloud top is necessary to maintain the near future bullishness and suggest possible triangle formation is underway from 0.8265 top and the currency pair should be expanded further lead to 0.8130/40
Therefore, we are turning the long pull, but must not be too bullish unless we see a clear break of Ichimoku cloud top.
On the downside, below 0.7880 will dampen this bearish them slightly, but only if the support of 0.7828 is broken, it will confirm the double top formation of 0.8265 to 0.8238, then major adjustments to the last growth will take place at 0.7750/60, otherwise, from 0.7828 to 0.8265 in gyration number will continue.
Therefore, we are turning the long pull, but must not be too bullish unless we see a clear break of Ichimoku cloud top.
On the downside, below 0.7880 will dampen this bearish them slightly, but only if the support of 0.7828 is broken, it will confirm the double top formation of 0.8265 to 0.8238, then major adjustments to the last growth will take place at 0.7750/60, otherwise, from 0.7828 to 0.8265 in gyration number will continue.
Label:
Forex Analysis
EURJPY Despite falling sharply to 132.37
Despite falling sharply to 132.37 earlier as the single currency found good support and has only gathered after finding renewed buying interest at 133.04, the currency pair is likely to retrace the fall from 138.33 as the price has already exceeded 38.2% correction, the euro seems to be moving towards Kijun-Sen at 135.12, then 50% level of violation 135.35 (just below 135.38 former resistance), but the price should falter and under 61, 8% correction level of 136.05.
Therefore, we are looking to buy EUR / Yen for the withdrawal of such returns. If the price drops back below the 133.04 support, this will stop this mildly bullish view and propose a complete correction of 132.37, then 139.26 down from the top will continue for a retest of 132.37.
Therefore, we are looking to buy EUR / Yen for the withdrawal of such returns. If the price drops back below the 133.04 support, this will stop this mildly bullish view and propose a complete correction of 132.37, then 139.26 down from the top will continue for a retest of 132.37.
Label:
Forex Analysis
EURJPY falls below 133.40
The single currency moved higher after a brief retreat in New York to 133.99 (our site is genuine 133.65), cost only tested the Kijun-Sen as Tenkan-Sen has already started turning up, raising the odds are slightly bullish growth of 132.37 to a stronger correction to the recent decline 135.35/38 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 138.33 to 132.37 and the previous resistance), however, the price should falter under the 61.8% correction level 136.05, this level is also very near future Ichimoku cloud bottom level.
Therefore, we are still looking to buy EUR / Yen for the withdrawal of such a move. If the price falls below 133.40 (approximately 61,8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from 132.37), but only a clear break below 133.04 support will terminate this mildly bullish scenario and signal recovery from 132.37 complete then dropped 139.26 top will continue to re-visit the 132.37 support.
Therefore, we are still looking to buy EUR / Yen for the withdrawal of such a move. If the price falls below 133.40 (approximately 61,8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from 132.37), but only a clear break below 133.04 support will terminate this mildly bullish scenario and signal recovery from 132.37 complete then dropped 139.26 top will continue to re-visit the 132.37 support.
Label:
Forex Analysis
AUD crossed over Kijun-Sen
Although the Australian dollar is still meeting strong resistance in the flat country Ichimoku cloud bottom and further consolidation is likely, as Tenkan-Sen crossed over Kijun-Sen for 4 hours chart, which indicates an increase of 0.7850 should extend gain to 0, 8066 and perhaps to 0.8090/94 (61,8% Fibonacci retracement from 0.8238 to 0.7850 and the top of Ichimoku cloud area). Thus, a clear break of this level is necessary to keep this bullish picture and suggest possible triangle formation is underway from 0.8265 top, then the Aussie should be expanded further lead to 0.8130/40.
Therefore, we are still looking to buy a currency pair with a higher entry level with guests placing under yesterday's low of 0.7912. Once this level is broken, it will reduce this slightly bullish view and another drop of 0.7850 can be rejected, but only the loss of key support at 0.7828 will revive previous double top formation scenario of 0.8265 to 0 , 8238, the last major correction of the growth will take place at 0.7750/60, otherwise, erratic movements in number from 0.7828 to 0.8265, however, will be held.
Therefore, we are still looking to buy a currency pair with a higher entry level with guests placing under yesterday's low of 0.7912. Once this level is broken, it will reduce this slightly bullish view and another drop of 0.7850 can be rejected, but only the loss of key support at 0.7828 will revive previous double top formation scenario of 0.8265 to 0 , 8238, the last major correction of the growth will take place at 0.7750/60, otherwise, erratic movements in number from 0.7828 to 0.8265, however, will be held.
Label:
Forex Analysis
Australian dollar rallied last Friday
Although the Australian dollar rallied last Friday as suggested in our previous update (you can fill in our Buy recommendation) and climbed above the cloud Ichimoku 4 hour chart, Aussie hit the heavy selling pressure there falls, the price fell back below the Ichimoku cloud area, this type of price action means further choppy consolidation would take place.
At present, we still expect the Aussie to fall to 0.7950 (just below the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement from 0.7850 to 0.8120 in), however, in view of the aforementioned consolidative Outlook, 0.7900/10 should limit downside Aussie and the currency pair can phase back from there.
Therefore, while we are advised to sell the Aussie charge to fall to 0.7950, we will also endeavor to purchase 0.7950 rebound to 0.8035 (a relatively smaller target).
If the price breaks below 0.7900/10, it would risk falling further strong support to the area of 0.7828 to 0.7850 which is still expected to remain unchanged. The head when resistance 0.8120 (Friday's high) is broken, and then rose from 0.7850 to extend to 0.8170/80 but 0.8238 resistance will continue to hold.
At present, we still expect the Aussie to fall to 0.7950 (just below the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement from 0.7850 to 0.8120 in), however, in view of the aforementioned consolidative Outlook, 0.7900/10 should limit downside Aussie and the currency pair can phase back from there.
Therefore, while we are advised to sell the Aussie charge to fall to 0.7950, we will also endeavor to purchase 0.7950 rebound to 0.8035 (a relatively smaller target).
If the price breaks below 0.7900/10, it would risk falling further strong support to the area of 0.7828 to 0.7850 which is still expected to remain unchanged. The head when resistance 0.8120 (Friday's high) is broken, and then rose from 0.7850 to extend to 0.8170/80 but 0.8238 resistance will continue to hold.
Label:
Forex Analysis
EUR corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93
Although the single currency edged higher after the sharp decline of 132.37 (Wednesday's low) against the Japanese yen, trading near future variable in the 132.37 to 135.37 is still probably as 135.70 (previous support, now resistance) has another attempt downside is still likely, however, down from 139.26 as the top is seen as the correction, the price will be held over the 131.47/70 support area and returns.
Therefore, we are going to trade the range and will sell EUR / JPY at 135.30 or 132.50 buy for 150 points with 50 points stop. The head injury indicated earlier support of 135.70 (now resistance) will confirm the corrective decline from 139.26 is over the top and bring the continuation of the wave V 1 for another attempt at resistance later this month.
To re-cap of corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93 (October 18, 2000), and from there the wave is divided into: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (June 1, 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (November 10, 2003) and 5 completed a record high of 169.97 (July 21, 2008). The short but sharp selloff to 112.08 is seen as ABC x ABC type correction in the B wave. following a rally of 112.08 showed impulsive structure, therefore, we labeled wave 1 re. from 139.29 selloff seen as the route of the downswing to increase by 126.99 (May 18) and only a violation of 131.47/70 support area will confirm the wave of 1 V is over and bring a wave 2 correction 129.70 and perhaps to 126.99 (May 18, 2009), however, 124.38 support should remain intact.
Therefore, we are going to trade the range and will sell EUR / JPY at 135.30 or 132.50 buy for 150 points with 50 points stop. The head injury indicated earlier support of 135.70 (now resistance) will confirm the corrective decline from 139.26 is over the top and bring the continuation of the wave V 1 for another attempt at resistance later this month.
To re-cap of corrective upmove from a record low of 88.93 (October 18, 2000), and from there the wave is divided into: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (June 1, 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (November 10, 2003) and 5 completed a record high of 169.97 (July 21, 2008). The short but sharp selloff to 112.08 is seen as ABC x ABC type correction in the B wave. following a rally of 112.08 showed impulsive structure, therefore, we labeled wave 1 re. from 139.29 selloff seen as the route of the downswing to increase by 126.99 (May 18) and only a violation of 131.47/70 support area will confirm the wave of 1 V is over and bring a wave 2 correction 129.70 and perhaps to 126.99 (May 18, 2009), however, 124.38 support should remain intact.
Label:
Forex Analysis
Tuesday, July 05, 2011
FALLING STOCKS AND DOLLAR REACHES $ 4.11
INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK - The President of Greece, George Papandreou, got its goal on the morning of Wednesday and won the support of more than half of 300 deputies that make up the Greek Parliament, by which he obtained approval from the House to put up the adjustments required by the EU and the IMF for Greece to receive financial aid. The euro rose, then up to two weeks against the dollar in response to the news, setting a ceiling of $ 1.4449. Moreover, it emerged on Thursday that the big German banks had agreed to participate in a new aid program for Greece agreeing to longer terms of payment for bonds worth 2,000 million euros maturing in 2014. Meanwhile, French bankers are also willing to reinvest 70% of the securities maturing in the next three years.
Finally, the euro closed on Friday its second-quarter earnings above $ 1.45, thanks to Greece has been avoided, at least for the moment, bankruptcy and receive international aid. The single currency also benefited from expectations of a further rise in interest rates by the ECB at its meeting next Thursday, after inflation in the eurozone will be above the bank's target. Some positive U.S. economic data and signs that the Japanese economy is recovering from the earthquake faster than expected has boosted expectations for an improvement in the global economy for the second half, which increases the risk appetite , favoring the euro and other related commodities.
However, although some analysts believe the currency could be directed toward community $ 1.50, the majority has decided to act cautiously until Greece show that is capable of implementing austerity measures approved. Meanwhile, Portugal announced the acceptance of the plan to also have access to financial aid. On Friday, at the last minute, it was reported that the finance ministers of the EU on Saturday held a conference call to give the green light to the delivery of 12,000 million multilateral aid for Greece. At Friday's close in New York market the euro traded at $ 1.4524.
FALLING STOCKS AND DOLLAR REACHES $ 4.11
PANORAMA ARGENTINO - There were two issues at the edge of last week led to interesting exchanges between market participants. On the one hand, was the speech by the president of the BCRA, Mercedes Marco del Pont at the opening of the conference money, who said "We will not use adjustment policies or cooling of the economy or the currency appreciation as a tool for disciplining prices. " In the same vein, the economist and general manager of Aerolineas Argentinas, Kicillof Axel, who sources said may be the future economy minister, said in a panel that "orthodox economics is an absolute bankruptcy," adding that the Central Bank " can not be independent. " And also attracted widespread attention that the closing exchange rate of the National Bank has reached $ 4.11, when the minister had assured Amado Boudou recent days a group of bankers, emphatically, "the older guy is not going to going from $ 4.10 to the end of October. " Meanwhile, the Argentine MULC had a week last June, very complicated.
Transactions are conducted in a tense atmosphere, the product of a great uncertainty to the perhaps contributing again, the BCRA itself with its very particular way to make its interventions in the market. The truth is that demand again exceeded supply and the money being sought by various means of balancing the two forces. Sometimes, very early, sold counted between 15 and 20 million dollars to test the volume buyer and sometimes turned to the futures market to sell at short notice at prices implied rates between 7.5 and 8%, tempting and banks to make a profitable business by buying the BCRA to future market and selling in the consideration in cash, by the swaps classic. He also called upon to display his classic offer for USD 50 million at a fixed price, which has the sole purpose of putting a cap on prices, because this offer becomes virtual, it is very difficult to be operated in a market that does not bargain for such high amounts.
The amount traded between banks and exchange rate was $ 2.313 million, with a daily average of USD 463 million, 17% lower than the previous week. On Wednesday 29 the closing selling transfer set by the National Bank was $ 4.1100, being the historical exchange rate of the peso / dollar higher. After five days of reserves totaled USD 51.741 million, showing a fall of USD 348 million. In the futures market prices were Rofex end of July to $ 4.1330, $ 4.1620 in August, September $ 4.2270, $ 4.3120 in December and June, 2012 $ 4.5790. In the futures market in New York the peso / dollar traded at $ 4.6108 a year (12%).
Finally, the euro closed on Friday its second-quarter earnings above $ 1.45, thanks to Greece has been avoided, at least for the moment, bankruptcy and receive international aid. The single currency also benefited from expectations of a further rise in interest rates by the ECB at its meeting next Thursday, after inflation in the eurozone will be above the bank's target. Some positive U.S. economic data and signs that the Japanese economy is recovering from the earthquake faster than expected has boosted expectations for an improvement in the global economy for the second half, which increases the risk appetite , favoring the euro and other related commodities.
However, although some analysts believe the currency could be directed toward community $ 1.50, the majority has decided to act cautiously until Greece show that is capable of implementing austerity measures approved. Meanwhile, Portugal announced the acceptance of the plan to also have access to financial aid. On Friday, at the last minute, it was reported that the finance ministers of the EU on Saturday held a conference call to give the green light to the delivery of 12,000 million multilateral aid for Greece. At Friday's close in New York market the euro traded at $ 1.4524.
FALLING STOCKS AND DOLLAR REACHES $ 4.11
PANORAMA ARGENTINO - There were two issues at the edge of last week led to interesting exchanges between market participants. On the one hand, was the speech by the president of the BCRA, Mercedes Marco del Pont at the opening of the conference money, who said "We will not use adjustment policies or cooling of the economy or the currency appreciation as a tool for disciplining prices. " In the same vein, the economist and general manager of Aerolineas Argentinas, Kicillof Axel, who sources said may be the future economy minister, said in a panel that "orthodox economics is an absolute bankruptcy," adding that the Central Bank " can not be independent. " And also attracted widespread attention that the closing exchange rate of the National Bank has reached $ 4.11, when the minister had assured Amado Boudou recent days a group of bankers, emphatically, "the older guy is not going to going from $ 4.10 to the end of October. " Meanwhile, the Argentine MULC had a week last June, very complicated.
Transactions are conducted in a tense atmosphere, the product of a great uncertainty to the perhaps contributing again, the BCRA itself with its very particular way to make its interventions in the market. The truth is that demand again exceeded supply and the money being sought by various means of balancing the two forces. Sometimes, very early, sold counted between 15 and 20 million dollars to test the volume buyer and sometimes turned to the futures market to sell at short notice at prices implied rates between 7.5 and 8%, tempting and banks to make a profitable business by buying the BCRA to future market and selling in the consideration in cash, by the swaps classic. He also called upon to display his classic offer for USD 50 million at a fixed price, which has the sole purpose of putting a cap on prices, because this offer becomes virtual, it is very difficult to be operated in a market that does not bargain for such high amounts.
The amount traded between banks and exchange rate was $ 2.313 million, with a daily average of USD 463 million, 17% lower than the previous week. On Wednesday 29 the closing selling transfer set by the National Bank was $ 4.1100, being the historical exchange rate of the peso / dollar higher. After five days of reserves totaled USD 51.741 million, showing a fall of USD 348 million. In the futures market prices were Rofex end of July to $ 4.1330, $ 4.1620 in August, September $ 4.2270, $ 4.3120 in December and June, 2012 $ 4.5790. In the futures market in New York the peso / dollar traded at $ 4.6108 a year (12%).
Label:
Forex Analysis
The EUR / USD cut early gains after S & P
The EUR / USD cut early gains after S & P indicated that the plan to refinance debt in Greece to reach a selective default. At first, the currency advanced to 1.4577 highs due to speculation that the ECB will raise interest rates this week to 1.5%, before reaching a minimum of 1.4511 due to concerns Greece. The EUR / JPY fell to 80.69, AUD / USD fell to lows of 1.0713 after unexpectedly retail sales go down by 0.6%, which permits for construction of new homes go down by 7.9% and due to gambling the RBA will not raise interest rates this year. The GBP / USD slipped to 1.6057, USD / JPY traded in a range between 80.69 and 80.91, gold fell to lows of 1485.70 dollars, silver dollars and 33.80 minimum oil traded at 94.89 U.S. dollars minimum.
On 2 July, the finance ministers of the EU authorized a disbursement of the loan to Greece worth 8.7 billion euros (12.6 billion dollars) in mid-July, after the Greek parliament approved the austerity measures and next week will meet to discuss long-term rescue for Greece. On 7 July, the ECB reference rate will increase to 1.5% from 1.25% without studying further rate hikes this year. If this happens, the euro may push higher after rate rise according to market analysts.
With U.S. markets closed today due to the Independence Day holiday, the markets will be watching today the publication of investor confidence in the EU and producer prices in the EU but this week the focus will be on data of non-farm payrolls in the U.S., the ECB rate decision and the discussions of the second phase of the rescue of Greece.
On 2 July, the finance ministers of the EU authorized a disbursement of the loan to Greece worth 8.7 billion euros (12.6 billion dollars) in mid-July, after the Greek parliament approved the austerity measures and next week will meet to discuss long-term rescue for Greece. On 7 July, the ECB reference rate will increase to 1.5% from 1.25% without studying further rate hikes this year. If this happens, the euro may push higher after rate rise according to market analysts.
With U.S. markets closed today due to the Independence Day holiday, the markets will be watching today the publication of investor confidence in the EU and producer prices in the EU but this week the focus will be on data of non-farm payrolls in the U.S., the ECB rate decision and the discussions of the second phase of the rescue of Greece.
Label:
Forex Analysis
The crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area
The crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area remains in the spotlight and European finance ministers met Sunday to discuss next steps on Greece. Everything is clear for now. The Greek government approved legislation to implement the new setting last Friday with a majority of 155 members in favor of 136 against in the second round of voting. After the double vote in parliament, the disbursement of the fifth part of the original package of 110 billion euros will not be any obstacle and certainly is a topic discussed in yesterday's meeting of the Eurogroup and so will be Tuesday, July 5 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Now that we have solved the issue of liquidity in the short term, all efforts will be to complete the look of the "private sector involvement" in the new financial aid package. The news "show signs" that there is progress on both the commitment of banks (and other institutional investors) to keep exposure to Greece and there is a possible approval by the rating agencies that these options will be considered a default, so we could be close to completion, possibly July 11. After the affirmative vote in the Greek parliament on austerity measures, the euro zone and the IMF surely will agree to pay one fifth of the aid package to Greece.
The past tense was a week for many, as the riots in Athens failed to prevent the party from the Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou, adopt more austerity measures to achieve 12 billion additional euros this month. At this time, the debt of the peripheral countries of the euro area has fallen from the highs they reached absolute bond, so the Treasury to 10 years in Ireland are at 996 basis points, from Portugal in 913, the Spain in 287, in 217 of Italy and Belgium in 133. Stock markets have risen sharply, with the first Spanish Ibex (5.80%) due to the frivolous opinion that everything is "fixed" and that the euro will not fall yet. This same way of thinking saw the krona strengthened after suffering a blow in June, as the Swiss franc fell from its all-time high of 0.8176. The pound fell against many currencies, including an absolute minimum of 1.4880 against the Australian dollar, to 1.9255 against the New Zealand dollar and 1.3255 against the Swiss franc, while against the euro was 0.9084 pounds ( or 1.1000 euros), its lowest level since March 2010. Interest rates on bonds fell in the UK, USA and Germany, many of which corrected a 38% fall in the last 6-11 weeks, so that the Euribor futures lost 20 to 30 points basis, while contracts of Eurodollar and Short Sterling remained as they were.
The official rate of employment (nonfarm) and the manufacturing ISM will be the central focus points in the United States this week. Both could increase the fear that this period of economic slowdown amid the recovery trend of recent months could be longer and deeper. The purchasing managers' indices have a loose regional results and suggest that the ISM will also fall, while poor macroeconomic performance over the last two months does not seem to have encouraged companies to accelerate recruitment. However, lower energy prices, falling mortgage rates and recovery actions could help stabilize the situation and cause results to be better as we enter the third quarter.
Recent economic indicators have been affected by the earthquake / tsunami / nuclear accident in Japan, especially in the land of the rising sun, where industrial production has fallen by 5.9% in May. Not surprisingly, the Tankan index of the second quarter results show a low or that retail sales fell 1.3% in May (2.4% among the largest retailers). Vehicle production rose slightly in May, so that instead of indicating a fall of 60.1% as in April, the decrease was 30.9%. Probably the logistical obstacles are causing Japan's CPI (excluding fresh food) has risen by 0.6% per year, an unexpected relief to authorities who have been fighting deflation for years.
Turkish Inflation in June could be a credibility test for the current stance of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Turkey. We anticipate an increase in annual inflation of 7.4% compared to the majority view of a drop of 7.2% to 7.0% in May. Food prices remain a source of volatility as we get closer to Ramadan and Bayram in August that could add uncertainty to the issue.
In the Czech Republic, we expect headline inflation has risen slightly from 2.0% to 2.1% annually, growth slowed by moderate annual price of fuel. A positive effect should be reflected in the acceleration of export growth in industrial production and retail sales.
In Brazil, inflation should moderate the trend in June and July and a monthly fee to keep close to zero. However, this is a temporary fact. As recently noted the country's central bank, unless the monetary tightening cycle is not extended, headline inflation will not reach the target until early 2013. We expect the bank to raise rates twice more in this cycle. Results of Purchasing Managers index should coincide with our view that fears for China's growth will prevent the State Board approve more increases in interest rates by the Bank of China this year.
Now that we have solved the issue of liquidity in the short term, all efforts will be to complete the look of the "private sector involvement" in the new financial aid package. The news "show signs" that there is progress on both the commitment of banks (and other institutional investors) to keep exposure to Greece and there is a possible approval by the rating agencies that these options will be considered a default, so we could be close to completion, possibly July 11. After the affirmative vote in the Greek parliament on austerity measures, the euro zone and the IMF surely will agree to pay one fifth of the aid package to Greece.
The past tense was a week for many, as the riots in Athens failed to prevent the party from the Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou, adopt more austerity measures to achieve 12 billion additional euros this month. At this time, the debt of the peripheral countries of the euro area has fallen from the highs they reached absolute bond, so the Treasury to 10 years in Ireland are at 996 basis points, from Portugal in 913, the Spain in 287, in 217 of Italy and Belgium in 133. Stock markets have risen sharply, with the first Spanish Ibex (5.80%) due to the frivolous opinion that everything is "fixed" and that the euro will not fall yet. This same way of thinking saw the krona strengthened after suffering a blow in June, as the Swiss franc fell from its all-time high of 0.8176. The pound fell against many currencies, including an absolute minimum of 1.4880 against the Australian dollar, to 1.9255 against the New Zealand dollar and 1.3255 against the Swiss franc, while against the euro was 0.9084 pounds ( or 1.1000 euros), its lowest level since March 2010. Interest rates on bonds fell in the UK, USA and Germany, many of which corrected a 38% fall in the last 6-11 weeks, so that the Euribor futures lost 20 to 30 points basis, while contracts of Eurodollar and Short Sterling remained as they were.
The official rate of employment (nonfarm) and the manufacturing ISM will be the central focus points in the United States this week. Both could increase the fear that this period of economic slowdown amid the recovery trend of recent months could be longer and deeper. The purchasing managers' indices have a loose regional results and suggest that the ISM will also fall, while poor macroeconomic performance over the last two months does not seem to have encouraged companies to accelerate recruitment. However, lower energy prices, falling mortgage rates and recovery actions could help stabilize the situation and cause results to be better as we enter the third quarter.
Recent economic indicators have been affected by the earthquake / tsunami / nuclear accident in Japan, especially in the land of the rising sun, where industrial production has fallen by 5.9% in May. Not surprisingly, the Tankan index of the second quarter results show a low or that retail sales fell 1.3% in May (2.4% among the largest retailers). Vehicle production rose slightly in May, so that instead of indicating a fall of 60.1% as in April, the decrease was 30.9%. Probably the logistical obstacles are causing Japan's CPI (excluding fresh food) has risen by 0.6% per year, an unexpected relief to authorities who have been fighting deflation for years.
Turkish Inflation in June could be a credibility test for the current stance of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Turkey. We anticipate an increase in annual inflation of 7.4% compared to the majority view of a drop of 7.2% to 7.0% in May. Food prices remain a source of volatility as we get closer to Ramadan and Bayram in August that could add uncertainty to the issue.
In the Czech Republic, we expect headline inflation has risen slightly from 2.0% to 2.1% annually, growth slowed by moderate annual price of fuel. A positive effect should be reflected in the acceleration of export growth in industrial production and retail sales.
In Brazil, inflation should moderate the trend in June and July and a monthly fee to keep close to zero. However, this is a temporary fact. As recently noted the country's central bank, unless the monetary tightening cycle is not extended, headline inflation will not reach the target until early 2013. We expect the bank to raise rates twice more in this cycle. Results of Purchasing Managers index should coincide with our view that fears for China's growth will prevent the State Board approve more increases in interest rates by the Bank of China this year.
Label:
Forex Analysis
trades within a long-term descending channel
The USD / JPY is trades within a long-term descending channel, while the daily chart is showing signs of consolidation within the 80.00-81.00 range, which may precede sudden movements of quotations, and possibly the formation of model "triangle down ", with waves cuantro already formed inside the triangle. Breaking range and support and resistance levels closer and 81.27 79.56 perspectives could clarify the pair. The USD / JPY has a long-term downtrend, so the 78.82 support level could be the next target.
Label:
Forex Analysis
Despite being July 4 will be closed U.S. markets
Despite being July 4 will be closed U.S. markets, in Europe the spirits are disturbed by a recent innovation: the ratings agency S & P said that could be put back in grade default to Greece.
This occurs within hours after the Greek government, through a very tough vote, successful adoption of the plan of adjustment imposed by the EU to extend its credit line, essential if the country does not enter into default in the next two weeks.
S & P said that could be allocated to debt issued by the Greek government a "D", which is unusual at this firm, and that classification could be temporary.
In any case, the path to the default output of Greece regains pitfalls that once again Germany and France, with different styles, will go to save.
The situation appears certain comic trimmings. Greece has made joining the European Union in a vicious circle, which if not "save" every risk of the economy helena, the problem will turn against him. Explicitly have already explained in this way certain officials of the Greek government, which led to a logical reaction of his colleagues elsewhere in Europe.
But it's so true that Europe should put the money necessary to ensure that Greece does not fall into default, and that in this situation, and knowing that this should happen fatally, Greece did not comply in any way with the required adjustment plans.
So Europe to avoid a similar situation in the future, should make clear that a member country of the Union committing the blunders that have made Greece such as GDP data falsification or pay the consequences of fiscal deficits in some way . Otherwise, other countries with similar problems will soon take a similar attitude.
What is also clear is that the Euro, so battered in the words, but firm and strong in quotes, is a political project of the European Union, and both Germany and France will not let them fall just because one of its partners has gotten off track.
Under these circumstances, should always analyze what happened to the Euro since its entry into force in January 2002. Probably, after starting this month fell to 0.90 and 0.8570, many have opted to rapid failure. But never underestimate the Germans. Its current share price, above 1.45, shows that the old Europe is more than firm in their convictions.
Sure, on the other side of the Atlantic help make this happen, and the Euro seem more than it is. The soft policy that still maintains the Federal Reserve has led the dollar to record lows, or almost historical in some cases, before the Yen, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar, to gold, oil, and to virtually all raw materials.
Probably, when the Fed of a twist to interest rates, to which will require that the circuit of industrial production and services are set to tone, increase employment, consumption and thus inflation, see a more even balance between the Euro so strong and so weak Dollar. For now, the single currency is gaining ground, despite the European problems.
Turning to the more strict now, if you see the prices of its platform move in slowly, or not move, do not worry. Your internet connection works fine, but the holiday in the United States always has this effect. The market activity is very low on Monday, and the movements for the next hours will be scarce.
Technically, the Euro continues to maintain a strong uptrend on the daily chart, trading at 1.4514 when, after breaking a trendline (Friday), and performing a pullback against it.
The 4 hour chart shows an upward trend also dominant, although it appears a trend line support point which is located near the current price. The breakdown of the information could change the direction of crossing to the onset of the Asian session Tuesday, with supports at 1.4475 and 1.4440. The resistors are located at 1.4550 and 1.4580.
Folks, this is it for this short day of work. All have an excellent trading day, see you Tuesday.
This occurs within hours after the Greek government, through a very tough vote, successful adoption of the plan of adjustment imposed by the EU to extend its credit line, essential if the country does not enter into default in the next two weeks.
S & P said that could be allocated to debt issued by the Greek government a "D", which is unusual at this firm, and that classification could be temporary.
In any case, the path to the default output of Greece regains pitfalls that once again Germany and France, with different styles, will go to save.
The situation appears certain comic trimmings. Greece has made joining the European Union in a vicious circle, which if not "save" every risk of the economy helena, the problem will turn against him. Explicitly have already explained in this way certain officials of the Greek government, which led to a logical reaction of his colleagues elsewhere in Europe.
But it's so true that Europe should put the money necessary to ensure that Greece does not fall into default, and that in this situation, and knowing that this should happen fatally, Greece did not comply in any way with the required adjustment plans.
So Europe to avoid a similar situation in the future, should make clear that a member country of the Union committing the blunders that have made Greece such as GDP data falsification or pay the consequences of fiscal deficits in some way . Otherwise, other countries with similar problems will soon take a similar attitude.
What is also clear is that the Euro, so battered in the words, but firm and strong in quotes, is a political project of the European Union, and both Germany and France will not let them fall just because one of its partners has gotten off track.
Under these circumstances, should always analyze what happened to the Euro since its entry into force in January 2002. Probably, after starting this month fell to 0.90 and 0.8570, many have opted to rapid failure. But never underestimate the Germans. Its current share price, above 1.45, shows that the old Europe is more than firm in their convictions.
Sure, on the other side of the Atlantic help make this happen, and the Euro seem more than it is. The soft policy that still maintains the Federal Reserve has led the dollar to record lows, or almost historical in some cases, before the Yen, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar, to gold, oil, and to virtually all raw materials.
Probably, when the Fed of a twist to interest rates, to which will require that the circuit of industrial production and services are set to tone, increase employment, consumption and thus inflation, see a more even balance between the Euro so strong and so weak Dollar. For now, the single currency is gaining ground, despite the European problems.
Turning to the more strict now, if you see the prices of its platform move in slowly, or not move, do not worry. Your internet connection works fine, but the holiday in the United States always has this effect. The market activity is very low on Monday, and the movements for the next hours will be scarce.
Technically, the Euro continues to maintain a strong uptrend on the daily chart, trading at 1.4514 when, after breaking a trendline (Friday), and performing a pullback against it.
The 4 hour chart shows an upward trend also dominant, although it appears a trend line support point which is located near the current price. The breakdown of the information could change the direction of crossing to the onset of the Asian session Tuesday, with supports at 1.4475 and 1.4440. The resistors are located at 1.4550 and 1.4580.
Folks, this is it for this short day of work. All have an excellent trading day, see you Tuesday.
Label:
Forex Analysis
gold followed the breakup of the trend line
GOLD
The recent fall of gold followed the breakup of the trend line that took place on June 23. The price fell to the level of short term support just above 1510, falling close to the exponential moving average (PME) for 50 days. Currently moving averages crossed and, in fact, the 50-day below the 200 days, this being a significant sign that investors took control of negative expectations. The price dropped quickly to touch the support area of 1475-1480, before rebounding slightly, but is expected to continue falling, at least in the short term.
The recent fall of gold followed the breakup of the trend line that took place on June 23. The price fell to the level of short term support just above 1510, falling close to the exponential moving average (PME) for 50 days. Currently moving averages crossed and, in fact, the 50-day below the 200 days, this being a significant sign that investors took control of negative expectations. The price dropped quickly to touch the support area of 1475-1480, before rebounding slightly, but is expected to continue falling, at least in the short term.
Label:
Forex Analysis
EURCHF the pair was reversed with EURCHF
EURCHF
The sharp downtrend in the pair was reversed with EURCHF forces last week, bouncing off of 1.18 to 1.23 in just a few days. Recovering crashed through the downtrend line going back to late April and crossed over the PME PME 50 days and 200 days. Apparently, the downtrend ended, at least for the short term, it is recommended to try going long after a setback.
The sharp downtrend in the pair was reversed with EURCHF forces last week, bouncing off of 1.18 to 1.23 in just a few days. Recovering crashed through the downtrend line going back to late April and crossed over the PME PME 50 days and 200 days. Apparently, the downtrend ended, at least for the short term, it is recommended to try going long after a setback.
Label:
Forex Analysis
USDAD after the breakdown of the trend line
USDCAD
The pair continued to fall USDAD after the breakdown of the trend line from 29 June. The sale was pushed right through a key support area between 0.9650 and 0.9675, and is expected to continue lowering the price to test the minimum of 0.9450, reached on May 1. Given the sharp fall would be prudent to wait before entering a decline, which could include a test of the support area, which now acts as resistance level.
The pair continued to fall USDAD after the breakdown of the trend line from 29 June. The sale was pushed right through a key support area between 0.9650 and 0.9675, and is expected to continue lowering the price to test the minimum of 0.9450, reached on May 1. Given the sharp fall would be prudent to wait before entering a decline, which could include a test of the support area, which now acts as resistance level.
Label:
Forex Analysis
For selling levels are at 80.90 / 81.00
The downward break was made, the price touched the bottom edges of the cloud of Ichimoku indicator RSI indicator Force marks a decline in upward price activity. Considering the direction of the index assumes a movement toward the nearest resistance level at 80.90 / 81.00 where is located the edges of the cloud of Ichimoku indicator and the 50% fibonacci. For selling levels are at 80.90 / 81.00 in the 50% fibonacci, if more break to 81.40 / 50 81.80 / 90 82.10 / 20. For sales would be below 80.40 / 30 to the lower channel line, with limits on 70.90 (Fibonacci 61.8%).
Label:
Forex Analysis
1.6020 as the next level support
The downward break was made, the pound found support at the edges of the indicator Ichimoku resistance to later find the other ends of the edges of Ichimoku indicator, keeping the price within a range. The RSI indicator Force marks an increase in the activity of the price downward so that sales are preferred today. Considering the direction of the index assumes a movement toward the nearest support levels at 1.6055 at 100.0% fibonacci and the edges of the cloud of the indicator and the convergence of the lines upstream and downstream channel at 1.6020 as the next level support. For shopping levels are 1.6130 / 40 if more break to 1.6180 / 90 For sales levels would be at 1.6030 / 20 1.5980 / 70.
Label:
Forex Analysis
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Popular Posts
Powered by Blogger.