Turning points

Turning points

The best of my knowledge, nobody ever really figured out a way to accurately figure out the future turning points. As far as I know, it's never been done. I do not think it will ever make.

I have encountered traders who told me that so-and-so is doing it, but I've never seen proof. However, I am willing to listen. I used to live in a "show me" state of Missouri, so show me!

When it comes to the future, I believe that man has no absolutes. The best you can do is to determine the statistical probabilities of occurrence of the event. But statistics are not precise enough for trading without a free management system that takes into account the aberrations that are bound to happen. I mentioned a few of those in previous newsletters. Here are a few: What do you do about flooding, drought, pest invasions, earthquakes, hurricanes, ice storms, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, revolutions, and other phenomena which can all push prices and market share of the extreme limits of the bell curve ? What do farmers decide when to hold back their crops, or farmers decide to hold more than cattle for higher prices? This is where management comes into play. However, even the best management can not compensate for bad distorted due to meet players, slow turnaround, bad data quickly to market conditions, illiquidity, electronic failures, system failures, weak back office accounting, or a bunch of Crazies fly planes in the former World Trade Center.

As long as you chase the idea of ​​perfecting your trading along the lines of predicting what will happen, you are sent to the failure. The best you can do is to manage your trading along the lines of what is likely to happen and then make your best effort out there, using the human brain and your human intuition. It's really all we need to work with.


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