Great Day for Day-Traders

Rather than invest your money in stocks that go up, then down, then sideways, today's market - much like many before it and surely in the future - exemplified the virtues of just plain, good-old gambling, or, as the barons of Wall Street put it, day trading.

If you were on the right side of the market - and active - today, you could have made a killing in either direction, or both, with options, index options or a combination of buying and short-selling. The reason is volatility, and Monday, August 4, was especially volatile.

Take the Dow, for instance. It opened narrowly on the downside, but by 11:00 was at session lows at 11,221, down more than 100 points from the open of 11,326. It spent the rest of the day climbing to a high of 11,382, but just before 3:00, fell another 120 points or so, recovering slightly at the close.

It was a three-move market. Day-traders, which includes just about every trader, hedge fund manager and smart alek on Wall Street, had a blast, mostly at the expense of those stodgy buy-and-hold types.

So, this is today's market, and maybe it always was like this, though if you can find anyone over the age of 60 who still follows financials, they'll tell you differently. Back in the 60s, 70s and even into the 80s (the "me" decade), there were stocks that would make you money if you just bought them and held them for 5, 7, or 10 years.

Those days are probably gone, as are the companies which made all that moolah, like Ford, GM, Xerox, and yes, even Microsoft and Cisco.

Nowadays, it's all about getting in, making a profit and getting out in our high-tech, globalized, flat world economy. That's it. Buy, hold equates to dumb, loser.

But, times do change and change is in the wind.

Dow 11,284.15 -42.17; NASDAQ 2,285.56 -25.40; S&P 500 1,249.01 -11.30; NYSE Composite 8,268.65 Down 110.50

On the day, advancing issues lagged decliners, 4164-2069, and, big surprise, new lows overwhelmed new highs, 276-84.

Oil got slammed again, as a storm in the Gulf of Mexico seemed to be too weak to damage any oil infrastructure. Or, at least that's what the financial press and the oil geeks would have us believe. One would like to know just when the appearance of storms in the Caribbean began affecting the global price of oil. It was probably about the time GW Bush and Dick Cheney took over the highest government offices in the land. Some coincidence there.

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Crude for September delivery closed down $3.61, to $121.41, the lowest closing price in nearly four months. The metals remained in lock step with the overpriced goo, with gold losing $9.60, to $907.90 and silver falling 38 cents to $17.14. The pattern in commodities is just too obvious to ignore.

I've been beating this story for over six months now, so I guess yelling that INFLATION ISN'T THE PROBLEM. DEFLATION IS! might not have any impact. But, a year from now, when gas is $2.75 a gallon, gold is $675 an ounce and you can't afford either because you have no job, don't say I didn't tell you so. The dollar's slide can only go so far, and it's gone a long way in a relatively short time. When the rest of the world begins to feel the same pain that Americans have for the past seven years plus, prices are going to go in the opposite direction.

It's simple supply and demand economics, and I don't have the time to explain it all right now. I have to go gamble... er, trade some stocks.

NYSE Volume 1,193,042,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,958,751,000

Stocks Chilled by GM, Jobs Data

Stocks traded lower for nearly the entire session on Friday, with all major indices pushing closer to mid-July depths after a mid-week run-up.

The damper du jour on the markets was two-fold. General Motors reported a $15.5 billion loss in the second quarter, with July sales falling 32% from a year ago. On the economic news front, the Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls for July down another 51,000, marking the 7th consecutive month of job losses. The "official" unemployment rate rose for the sixth straight month, to 5.7%, the highest in 4 years.

With those items greeting investors this morning, there was little euphoria on Wall Street as the week came to an end and the month of August began with an inauspicious start.

Dow 11,326.32 -51.70; NASDAQ 2,310.96 -14.59; S&P 500 1,260.31 -7.07; NYSE Composite 8,379.15 -59.49

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Advancers and decliners were nearly even in lackluster, low-volume trading, with gainers holding a slim edge, 2972-2969. There were 261 new lows and just 87 new highs.

Crude oil gained $1.02, to $125.10. Gold $5.20, to $917.50, while silver dropped another 27 cents, to $17.52. The metals are still exhibiting signs of cracking, indicative of global recession.

.... and that's the good news for the week. Good luck.

NYSE Volume 1,226,226,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,188,498,000

Despite Earnings Upsides, Markets Tank

A disappointing preliminary reading on second quarter GDP, showing expansion at a 1.9% annual rate (optimistic analysts were expecting 2.3%), sent stocks into another decline on Thursday, though losses were somewhat tempered due to a 2% drop in oil prices and strong earnings from some widely-held companies.

Dow 11,378.02 -205.67; NASDAQ 2,325.55 -4.17; S&P 500 1,267.38 -16.88; NYSE Composite 8,438.64 -126.67

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Jobless claims climbed 44,000 to 448,000, the third time in the last five weeks claims have been above the 400,000 level. The four-week moving average sailed 11,000 higher, to 393,000.

CBS Corp. (CBS), Altria (MO), Motorola (MOT), Disney (DIS), MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), and Tyco (TYC) all reported positive earnings results prior to the opening bell, though those pluses were not enough to stem the waves of selling that engulfed the markets.

Advancing issues were beaten back by decliners, 2656-3617. New lows were, as usual, ahead of new highs, though not by a substantial margin, 225-103.

Light Sweet Crude Oil for September delivery fell $2.69, to $124.08
Gold gained $10.40, to $922.70, and silver also rebounded, up 33 cents to $17.79 per ounce.

Release of July employment data in the Labor Department's Non-farm payroll report has investors somewhat spooked. Analysts are expecting the 6th straight month of job losses, roughly -72,000.

Oddly enough, many on the Street still put faith into the government's massively massaged numbers. For instance, it was revealed today that the economy actually shrank 0.2% in the 4th quarter of 2007, when earlier figures showed a minute gain of 0.6%.

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The employment figures are even more of a statistical shroud, based on faulty data collection measures and a dubious calculation method. The worst feature of employment-unemployment data is where people whose unemployment insurance has expired are taken out of the equation completely, rather than counted as continuing unemployed.

It is ever prudent to interpret government data with a wide berth. No figures are ever finalized until months later, and even then - in addition to being irrelevant due to dating - may be a stretch from reality.

With the current administration's continuing effort to jawbone the economy into better condition, the rule of thumb is to consider all data releases at 10-20% better than what is actual.

Generally speaking, the markets and anecdotal evidence reflect reality better than government figures. Only some federal number-crunchers and a select minority of analysts actually believe that a recession has been avoided. The rest of the world already knew that the final quarter of '07 and the first quarter of '08 were in decline, meeting the classical definition of a recession.

NYSE Volume 1,456,028,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,357,763,000