Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Market Motors Ahead on GM IPO

The entire trading day was a well-orchestrated event staged by the power brokers of Wall Street, the government and the shills on CNBC, designed exclusively to give the pet project of the bailout bunch, General Motors, a bright and cheery IPO send-off.

Shares of GM's rebirth IPO (initial public offering - somewhat of an oxymoron in this case) priced the previous day at $33 and opened with immediate upticks shortly after the general markets had commenced trading. That it would get a positive set up was assured by a gargantuan ramp-up in the futures, ostensibly on news that Ireland was veering toward accepting a bailout from either the EU or the IMF or a combination of both. Only in these wacky times can the fact that a nation is being saved from ruin by the very same bankers who ruined it foment a powerful rally, but, that's the world in which we now live.

The set-up got GM off to a nice start with the rest of he market despite fears that some traders would "flip" the stock, and surely some did. Shares of GM hit a high of 35.99 shortly after the open and retreated the rest of the day, hitting a low of 33.89 before settling at 34.19 at the close for a gain of 3.61%, no big deal.

The Fed pumped more money in the direction of the primary dealers. This is a permanent fixture now as the Fed has already set down a timetable for a daily POMO through December 9, with the exception of the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving (next week).

Another interesting note was news that Warren Buffet was to receive the Medal of Freedom, just a day after practically falling all over himself in praise of the government in his NY Times op-ed. At least he'll be in equally-suspect company. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former US President George H.W. Bush are among other recipients named by President Obama.

From this we can only surmise that the level of greed, corruption and naked narcissism has finally reached critical mass amongst the elitists.

Dow 11,181.23, +173.35 (1.57%)
NASDAQ 2,514.40, +38.39 (1.55%)
S&P 500 1,196.69, +18.10 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 7,619.94, +131.18 (1.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,083,305,250.00
NYSE Volume 5,373,779,000


Advancers trounced decliners, 5093-1419; new highs surpassed new lows for the second straight session, 299-59, but volume, up to 20% of which on the NYSE was attributed to trades on GM, was weak.

Commodities also ramped up. The front end of the crude oil futures gained $1.41, to $81.85. Gold picked up $16.10, to $1,353.00, while silver rose more than 5%, up by $1.32, to $26.83.

Unemployment claims were little changed from the previous week and October stock options expire tomorrow. The latest word from the continent is that Irish leaders are still resistant to a bailout, though the pressure is building for them to take the money and plunge the country into an even worse situation, with bills and interest owing to the IMF with no hope of ever paying its way out. This same thing has happened before, in Argentina and other South American countries. The usual outcome is the rape of the nation's wealth to the detriment of the populace.

Erin go Bragh, indeed.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

A Fairly Quiet Day Awakens Warren Buffett

Ireland didn't accept the EU or IMF offers for a bank bailout, nor did they default on their debt, and the mortgage/housing/foreclosure problems also didn't go away because the AGs of 50 states are in negotiations on a settlement with the banks.

But Warren Buffet's fawning praise for the worst scoundrels in the government, published today as an op-ed "letter" from "Nephew Warren" to Uncle Sam raised more than just eyebrows around the financial world and in the public conscience.

Buffet, one of the world's richest men, benefitted greatly from the 2008 bank bailouts, snatching up a piece of Goldman Sachs (about $5 billion worth) and Wells Fargo, putting the Oracle of Omaha clearly in the camp of the serial monetary abusers atop our grand government/industry pyramid.

His effort at humor or insight was simply lost on most people, especially those wh have been kicked out of their homes, lost jobs or simply are having trouble making ends meet in the worst economy since the Great Depression. Buffet singled out Hank Paulson, Sheila Bair, Tim Geithner, George W. Bush and Ben Bernanke for acting with "courage and dispatch" amidst the evolving crisis.

The piece came as somewhat of a surprise from Buffett, normally fairly apolitical, expressing thanks from a government of which he is often critical.

Other than that, the Fed pumped another $7..9 billion into the primary dealers and stocks stalled once again. So far, even though it's still early in the game, the Fed's QE2 hasn't amounted to much of anything, and since the money goes to banks, who will likely keep it rather than lend it, it isn't going to do anything. In truth, QE2 is nothing more than a backdoor bailout for the banks suffering with heavy real estate losses both on and off their books. But, who's looking?

Dow 11,007.88, -15.62 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,476.01, +6.17 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,178.59, +0.25 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 7,488.76, +16.13 (0.22%)


Advancing issues led decliners, 4719-2726, and new highs took back the advantage from new lows after relinquishing control for a day, yesterday, 179-80. There's quite a bit of pumping in individual issues keeping the lows and highs separated at this point. Obviously, with options expiration just two days off, there's plenty of arbitrage between stock prices, puts and calls to call this any kind of "orderly" market. It is anything but.

Volume continued in the doldrums as it has for the entire year.

NASDAQ Volume 1,836,918,250.00
NYSE Volume 4,508,769,500


Oil continued to nosedive, losing another $1.90 on the day, to $80.44. It had been nearly 90 just a week ago. Gold fell $1.50, to $1,336.90. Silver bucked the trend, up 28 cents, to $25.51.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Sideways Stagger Ahead of Fed

Markets spent most of the day on Tuesday trading in a narrow range in slightly negative territory, with the Dow Industrials the most pressured stocks of the session. In the end, markets finished in mixed fashion as investors weighed a shift in the dollar-commodity-stocks relationship and a mega-deal by Warren Buffett while awaiting a policy decision from the Fed on the morrow.

Overall, stocks began the session lower and gained strength throughout the day, especially in the case of the NASDAQ, which finished on the uptick. Markets are still very much undecided about direction. Additionally, there was some measure of decoupling of gold from the dollar, as the yellow metal soared in price on a sale of 200 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to India's Central Bank, setting a record price in the process.

The extraordinary rise in the price of gold came in the face of a stronger dollar, which is absolutely counter to the prevailing trend. Though the dollar weakened through the day, oil and silver also gained in price, but the relationship was badly dented, with the commodities working on their own path, unrelated to that of the greenback.

This conundrum had heads spinning in the trading pits, from futures to forex. The implications of such a huge buy by India's Central Bank, without any hint of a discount - and with the understanding that they are prepared to purchase more - leaves dollar traders in the lurch if India's intent is to partially back the rupee with physical gold. It represents a dramatic shift away from fiat currency to hard assets.

Another item buttressing the markets was Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffet announcing the purchase of one of the largest railroad operations in the country, Burlington Northern Santa fe (BNI). The $44 billion deal, Berkshire's largest ever, will be paid in stock and cash. Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway announced a 50-for-1 split of its Class B common stock, which will make the pricey shares more attractive to the general public. The ticker symbol BRK-B currently trades in a range around 3,300 per share, putting even ten shares out of reach of the ordinary investor. After the split, the stock will sell initially around a much more reasonable price of 66 per share.

On the news, Burlington Northern (BNI) gained 20.93, to 97.00 at the close.

Dow 9,771.91, -17.53 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,057.32, +8.12 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,045.41. +2.53 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 6,812.70, +27.76 (0.41%)


On the day, advancing issues beat decliners, 3888-2563. New highs regained the high ground over new lows, though by the narrowest of margins, 98-94. Evidently, investors are standing pat until after the Fed speaks. Oddly enough, the Fed is not expected to say much, if anything, different from policy statements from the past 8 months. Investors are looking for any subtle change in wording of their statement which might indicate a willingness to raise rates in the near term. The outlook is for the Fed to keep rates at their absurdly low levels until Spring. What also is weighing on investors' minds is the unemployment picture. While the govrnment's Non-farms payroll data will be released on Friday, the market will get an early glimpse tomorrow morning when ADP releases it's proprietary private sector employment report for October.

Volumes were muted, without a doubt in anticipation of the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 2:00 pm. Instead of outright selling, investors are showing a good deal of resolve, especially in the face of recent market weakness, preferring to hold stocks and simply not stake out new positions presently.

NYSE Volume 6,209,336,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,042,206,500


As mentioned above, commodities took off on their own trajectory today. Oil gained $1.47, to $79.60. Gold soared $31.20 to a new all-time high of $1,085.20. Silver gained in sympathy, up a very healthy 75 cents, to $17.19, close to its highs for the year.

Uncertainty reigns at the moment, though the current tightness should abate with the release of key economic data and the Fed announcement. With stocks off roughly 5% from their recent highs, there should be no lack of demand pent up for stock speculation into the holidays.

Monday, May 07, 2007

No Stopping the Bull: Another New High for Dow

If you've missed the recent stock market explosion, take heart. The new highs will continue to come and stocks are poised to make impressive gains. The US economy - despite some persistent, nagging problems - continues to expand at a measured pace and corporations have never had it so good. This bull is getting a second wind. 15,000 on the Dow by the end of the year is looking more achievable every day.

Dow 13,312.97 +48.35; NASDAQ 2,570.95 -1.20; S&P 500 1,509.48 +3.86; NYSE Composite 9,825.09 +32.09

CNNMoney reports that today's Dow gain matches an 80-year-old record of 24 up sessions in the last 27. The previous run was in the summer of 1927.

While the Dow continues to awe and amaze, the NASDAQ dropped a little more than a point, though the S&P 500 moved to within 18 points of its all-time closing high. Once again, the if the S&P manages a new high, it could spark a significant break out, leading all indices higher.

The markets were buoyed by a confluence of forces today including Warren Buffet's suggestion that his Berkshire-Hathaway conglomerate would be pursuing an acquisition in the $40-60 billion range.
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Speculation on what Buffett will be buying ranges from the outrageous (think Yahoo or Adobe Systems) to the marginally feasible - like Dow components Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD) or McDonald's (MCD) - each of which are within his market cap range.

Alcoa (AA) management announced that it would be pursuing rival Alcan (AL) via a hostile bid. Both stocks were sharply higher, with Alcan gaining more than 21 points at the close - a nearly 35% increase - to 82.11.

Oil fell for the 6th straight session, a run of losses which has drivers cheering. The price of crude on the NY Mercantile Exchange fell 46 cents to $61.47. The losing streak was the longest in more than 7 months.

Advancers and decliners were nearly equal, with about 100 more issues gaining ground than losing. New highs checked in at 468, versus only 66 new lows. Anybody shorting this market or individual issues, is likely to be taking it on the chin. Our new highs-new lows metric continues to suggest the bull will run strong for some time and that there is no top in sight.

Gold again moved closer to the magic $700 mark, closing at $690.30, up 60 cents per ounce. Silver experienced a similar gain of 11 cents to close at $13.64. The metals continue to confound investors who see inflation everywhere, but no corresponding gains in the time-worn precious metal hedge.

Stocks are where it's at, and with everybody - including the Oracle of Omaha - thinking big, this rally could run for months more.
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